Iranian military officials acknowledged tactical failures during the recent war with Israel while insisting the country's missile capabilities remain largely intact, with a senior Western diplomat stated missile sites may now be relocated deeper into eastern Iran for protection. "If we keep. "We did not think that they would target our commanders and scientists in their own homes along with their families. We miscalculated and admit that we were wrong,"  Mohammad Reza Naghdi, a Revolutionary Guards deputy commander said. Despite strikes that killed dozens of senior commanders, Naghdi claimed "Israel has not destroyed even 3% of our missile launchers," the Financial Times reported.

The Revolutionary Guards recently staged a public weapons exhibition at Tehran's National Aerospace Park, displaying ballistic missiles, hypersonic systems, and attack drones. The display sought to project military strength and reassure citizens following the 12-day war with Israel and the US that exposed significant vulnerabilities. Israeli strikes killed dozens of senior commanders and nuclear scientists, while over 1,000 people died in Iran, according to the Financial Times. Tehran argues its massive missile response forced the conflict to halt.

A 35-year-old accountant named Nasrin stopped before a Sejjil ballistic missile, remembering social media images of the weapon soaring through skies during fighting, the Financial Times reported. "Thanks to these missiles, the US and Israel knelt down before us," she remarked. "Without them, Iran would have become like Gaza."

Last month's presentation formed part of a campaign to convey strength following a war inflicting severe damage on the Islamic republic – and to assure citizens the nation remains combat-ready should necessity arise, according to the Financial Times.

Brigadier General Ali Balali of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, serving as exhibition director, told attendees: "People are seeing these missiles and drones up close, and realise they're locally made weapons to defend the homeland," the Financial Times reported. "Our capabilities place us within the club of nations known for significant missile development."

During months following the 12-day conflict, wherein the US briefly participated before negotiating a ceasefire, numerous Iranians describe existing in a state of "no war, no peace," according to the Financial Times. Iran has prohibited UN inspectors from accessing its most sensitive nuclear installations, which sustained US bombing, and has reached deadlock with Washington over resuming atomic energy program talks, the Financial Times reported. European powers have additionally reimposed sanctions.

These developments have produced mounting anxiety within Iran that renewed combat may prove inevitable rather than hypothetical, according to the Financial Times. "Our missile capability must continue to grow," stated Sara, a 19-year-old psychology student at the aerospace park. "The war could resume at any moment."

Officials insist Iran's military preparedness undergoes swift restoration, the Financial Times reported. Yet the exhibition also represented an attempt to shift public narrative away from vulnerabilities exposed during combat, when Israeli forces eliminated dozens of senior commanders and nuclear scientists in a devastating opening assault. Iranian authorities reported casualties exceeding 1,000.

By launching what it describes as more than 600 missiles in retaliation – the most extensive bombardment Israel has confronted in its history – Tehran argues it compelled the war to cease, the Financial Times reported.

Iranian officials contend the war should be assessed not solely by deaths but by financial costs Israel and the US incurred intercepting relatively inexpensive Iranian munitions and executing long-range aerial operations, including with expensive precision guided missiles, the Financial Times reported.

Shahed drones, utilized by Russia in its Ukraine war, received prominent display, alongside multiple other drones reverse engineered from US and Israeli models Iran captured, the Financial Times reported. Still, the Islamic republic has also sought to address its shortcomings. Domestically-manufactured radar systems failed to prevent Israeli jets and drones from striking Tehran. In recent YouTube interviews with hardline director Javad Mogouei, ministers and military commanders admitted Israeli tactics caught them unprepared.

"We were taken by surprise by the way the enemy operated," stated Mohammad Reza Naghdi, a Revolutionary Guards deputy commander during the war, according to the Financial Times. "We did not think that they would target our commanders and scientists in their own homes along with their families. We miscalculated and admit that we were wrong."

The most embarrassing moment occurred with Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran in July 2024, when Iran declined to retaliate against Israel, the Financial Times reported. Officials now acknowledge this reflected not strategic restraint but an uncomfortable reality: Tehran recognized it lacked sufficient capabilities to respond effectively and required time for rebuilding.

Brigadier General Ali Mohammad Naeini, spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, informed Mogouei that Iran had worked to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of its missiles during subsequent months, according to the Financial Times.

"We are working around the clock to reach a new level of readiness," Naeini declared. "Without long-range ballistic missiles, this war would have lasted eight years [like the war with Iraq], not 12 days. It would have taken us a year, not hours, to go on the offensive."

A senior Western diplomat in Tehran stated missile sites may now relocate deeper into eastern Iran – farther from Israeli and American aircraft – for enhanced protection, the Financial Times reported. "If we keep the enemy's targets beyond its access, there won't be another war," Naghdi stated. "Their costs must exceed their achievements."

Western diplomats are also monitoring for indications whether the republic seeks foreign assistance to rebuild its military strength, the Financial Times reported. The critical question, as one expressed it, involves whether nations like Russia, China and Pakistan are offering support to Iran.

For many aerospace park visitors, the conclusion proved evident: Iran's future depended not merely on protecting but strengthening its weapons program, according to the Financial Times. "If we put aside our missile programme, we will be attacked more severely next time," stated Keyvan, a 27-year-old computer engineer. "After the war, we realise more than ever how invaluable these missiles are."

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Before being summoned back to Syria from Britain in the 1990s to prepare for succession after his father, Hafez al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad had trained as an ophthalmologist in London.

A source close to the Assad family said the former Syrian president is currently studying Russian and relearning the field of ophthalmology. "It's his passion," the source said. "Obviously, he doesn't need the money. Even before the war began, he practiced in Damascus." The sources estimated that members of Moscow's "elite" could become his clients in the future.

A year after the collapse of his rule in Syria, following a long civil war in which he massacred his own people, Assad and his family are living lives of luxury in Moscow and the United Arab Emirates.

Two sources estimated that the Assad family is residing in Rublyovka, one of Moscow's most exclusive neighborhoods.

"These are quiet lives," a family friend told The Guardian. "He barely has any contact with the outside world." According to the source, Assad is in touch only with a small number of figures from the former regime, including Mansour Azzam, a former minister, and businessman Yasser Ibrahim.

A source close to the Kremlin said Assad has largely become irrelevant to Putin and to Russia's elite.

"Putin has little patience for leaders who lose their grip on power, and Assad is no longer seen as an influential figure or even as an interesting guest to invite to dinner," the source said.

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Moscow enforces stringent limitations on Bashar al-Assad nearly 12 months following his Syrian departure, with curtailed mobility and prohibited public visibility, multiple outlets indicated to Euronews.

Moscow placed severe requirements on Assad's residence when providing refuge in April 2025, Russian Ambassador to Iraq Elbrus Kutrashev revealed to Euronews. Assad must avoid all media visibility and political involvement, Kutrashev informed the Islamic Republic News Agency, according to Euronews.

Russian intelligence agencies maintain Assad under exceptionally severe protection, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights stated to Euronews. His mobility remains highly constrained, and he has ceased to give public addresses, Euronews reported.

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Iran had functioned as one of Damascus's most essential supporters throughout the civil war that ignited in 2011 after the regime's brutal response to pro-democracy demonstrations, sending military advisers and Revolutionary Guards forces to Syria, AFP reported.

Revolutionary Guards units and regional allies – chiefly Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon, plus combatants from Iraq and Afghanistan – had occupied strategic locations and propped up Assad's regime, only to vanish as Islamist-led forces charged toward the capital, according to AFP.

Syrian military officers and troops operated under Revolutionary Guards command, whose influence grew during the conflict while Assad's authority weakened, AFP reported.

A former Syrian officer posted at a Guards security facility in Damascus said that on December 5, 2024, his Iranian commander ordered him to an operations center in Mazzeh district the next day to address an "important matter," according to AFP. The ex-officer, requesting anonymity over safety concerns, said his commander – identified as Hajj Abu Ibrahim – delivered a bombshell announcement to about 20 Syrian officers and soldiers assembled for the briefing, AFP reported.

"From today, there will be no more Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Syria. We're leaving," those present were informed, according to AFP. "It's all over. From today, we are no longer responsible for you."

They were instructed to destroy or burn classified documents and extract hard drives from computers, AFP reported. The declaration came as Islamist forces secured massive gains, yet it still caught Syrian soldiers by surprise, he said, according to AFP.

"We knew things hadn't been going well, but not to that extent." They received advance payment covering one month and departed for home, AFP reported.

Within two days, Islamist forces captured Damascus without fighting after Assad escaped to Russia, according to AFP. Two Syrian staff members at Iran's Damascus consulate, requesting anonymity for security purposes, also recounted a hurried Iranian departure, AFP reported. The consulate stood empty by December 5 evening as Iranian diplomats scrambled across the border into Beirut, they informed AFP.

Multiple Syrian employees "who held Iranian nationality left with them, accompanied by senior Revolutionary Guards officers," one former employee stated, according to AFP. At Jdeidet Yabus – Syria's primary Lebanese border crossing – taxi operators and former staff documented enormous congestion on December 5 and 6, with eight-hour delays to cross the frontier, AFP reported.

Both ex-consulate workers said Iranians instructed Syrian personnel to remain home and compensated them three months' wages, according to AFP.

The embassy, consulate and all Iranian security installations were abandoned by December 6 morning, they said, AFP reported.

Throughout the conflict, forces under Iranian authority concentrated in critical Damascus zones and suburbs, especially Sayyida Zeinab district – site of a significant Shiite Muslim shrine – and around Damascus airport, plus near Lebanese and Iraqi frontiers, according to AFP.

Sections of northern Aleppo and other provincial sites also functioned as major deployment zones for personnel and combatants, AFP reported.

At a location that formerly operated as a crucial Iranian military base south of Aleppo, Colonel Mohammad Dibo said when the city fell early in the rebel campaign, "Iran stopped fighting," according to AFP.

Iranian forces "had to withdraw suddenly after the quick collapse" of Assad's military, stated Dibo, who participated in the rebel offensive and currently serves in Syria's new armed forces, AFP reported. On severely damaged walls at the deserted base, an AFP journalist observed Iranian and Hezbollah slogans plus a mural showing a sword slicing through an Israeli flag, according to AFP.

Israel – Tehran's foe – had conducted hundreds of airstrikes on Syria during the war, primarily claiming it targeted Assad's forces and Iran-backed organizations, AFP reported. The anonymous former Syrian army officer said that on December 5, a high-ranking Iranian military official known as Hajj Jawad and several Iranian troops and officers were transported to Russia's Hmeimim base on the Mediterranean coast, then airlifted to Tehran, according to AFP.

At the deserted site near Aleppo, Dibo said following the city's collapse, "some 4,000 Iranian military personnel were evacuated via Russia's Hmeimim base" where they had sought refuge, AFP reported. Additional personnel escaped overland through Iraq or Lebanon, he stated, according to AFP.

The departure proved so hurried that "when we entered their bases" in Aleppo province, "we found passports and identity documents belonging to Iranian officers who didn't even have time to retrieve them."

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Also on Thursday, France announced a new voluntary military service program for young people, due to launch in mid-2026, aimed at strengthening the country's capabilities in the face of what officials describe as accelerating global threats.

Germany began drafting its plan, known as OPLAN DEU, at a special military gathering held roughly two and a half years ago at a base near Berlin. The classified document maps out the routes for moving NATO forces eastward through ports, rivers, rail lines and roads, as well as the methods for supplying and protecting those forces.

Thanks to its geography and central position on the continent, Germany would become a critical logistical hub in any major conflict with Russia, serving as the main corridor for NATO troops heading east. Look at the map, said Tim Stuchtey, head of the Brandenburg Institute for Society and Security. With the Alps forming a natural barrier, NATO forces will have to cross Germany in any clash with Russia, regardless of where hostilities begin.

According to the report, the plan outlines a comprehensive approach to war that seeks to mobilize society and civilian infrastructure for a battlefield effort. It amounts to a return to Cold War thinking, while grappling with new challenges such as aging infrastructure, insufficient legislation and much smaller Western armies than in past decades.

The Journal noted that German officials believe Russia will be ready and willing to strike NATO in 2029. Yet multiple incidents across Europe involving espionage, sabotage attacks and airspace intrusions, many attributed to Moscow, suggest Russia could prepare for an attack even earlier. Analysts quoted in the report warned that a possible cease-fire in Ukraine might free up Russian time and resources to plan a move against NATO countries.

The planners argue that strengthening Europe's resilience would not only ensure victory but also reduce the likelihood of war. "The goal is to prevent war by making clear to our enemies that if they attack us, they will not succeed," a senior officer involved in drafting the plan told the newspaper.

The report describes an exercise held this fall in eastern Germany in which Rheinmetall, the country's largest defense company, built a temporary camp for 500 soldiers including housing, showers, fuel stations, a field kitchen and anti-drone protection. The camp was constructed in 14 days and dismantled in seven. Imagine building a small town from scratch and taking it down within days, said Rheinmetall's Marc Lemmermann.

But the drill also exposed shortcomings. The site was too small for all the vehicles, and the land plots were not adjacent, forcing troops to shuttle back and forth. The plan faces additional challenges such as cumbersome procurement rules, rigid information laws and regulations not adapted for wartime conditions.

"We have to relearn what we once knew", said Deputy Defense Minister Nils Schmid. "We need to bring people out of retirement to remind us how we used to do this."

The article highlights the deterioration of Germany's military preparedness since the end of the Cold War. Whereas highway segments were once designed to double as emergency landing strips, jet fuel tanks were buried beneath parking lots, and guardrails could be removed within minutes, the years since have brought new tunnels and bridges that are too narrow or too weak for military convoys.

Germany's existing infrastructure has also decayed. Officials in Berlin estimate that 20 percent of the Autobahn network and more than a quarter of bridges require repair. North Sea and Baltic ports need an estimated 15 billion euros in upgrades, including 3 billion for military-related improvements.

Another exercise in September underscored Europe's unpreparedness. The drill, known as Red Storm Bravo, was meant to simulate on a small scale the massive troop movements envisioned by the German plan. Five hundred NATO soldiers were supposed to land at a port and travel east in convoy. But things quickly went wrong. Protesters, who were actually reservists, jumped from bushes and glued themselves to the road. The soldiers were not permitted to remove them, and police realized they lacked the tools to do so. It took two hours before the convoy could move again, ultimately covering only about ten kilometers.

The threat is not theoretical. Earlier this month, damage was discovered on the Warsaw-Lublin rail line, a critical route for delivering military aid to Ukraine. An investigation found that an explosive device had been detonated remotely, with suspicion directed at Russia. The chief of staff of Poland's military, Gen. Wieslaw Kukula, said the enemy has begun preparations for war, adding that the situation is not war but pre-war, or what many call hybrid war. Poland has attributed the sabotage to Russia.

The German and French measures are part of a broader European trend. In March, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled an 800-billion-euro rearmament program. "We are in an era of rearmament", she said. Europe is prepared to increase defense spending massively: at a NATO summit in The Hague in June, alliance members agreed to raise their defense-spending target from 2 percent to 5 percent of GDP by 2035.

France's announcement on Thursday came as President Emmanuel Macron introduced a new voluntary military service program for 18- to 19-year-olds. Scheduled to begin in mid-2026, the program will run for ten months and cost 2 billion euros. It will initially recruit 3,000 participants, rising to 10,000 by 2030, with Macron hoping to reach 50,000 by 2036.

The French move followed an announcement earlier this month by Germany's governing coalition parties, who agreed on a new voluntary-based recruitment model, leaving open the possibility of mandatory service if volunteer numbers fall short. Macron made clear that France will not follow that path. There is no going back to the days of conscription, he said. This hybrid army model fits the threats and risks we face. France aims to reach 100,000 reservists by 2030, up from about 47,000 today.

Macron's announcement came as controversy erupted over remarks made last week by France's chief of staff, Gen. Fabien Mandon, who said France must be prepared to lose its children to deter Russia. What we lack is the strength of spirit to endure hardship to defend who we are, he told a gathering of mayors.

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This impressive architecture, planted in the symbolic and geographic heart of Europe, is certainly inspiring. But it would take no more than a single Russian explosive drone for all the handsome glass panes of Germany's parliamentary complex to shatter at once. "The problem is that we are sitting in a building that is not properly protected against a drone attack," says Roderich Kiesewetter, a member of parliament from the Christian Democratic Union, speaking on the sixth floor of Paul Löbe House. "The idea behind the design of this building, which was constructed in the 1990s, was to embody the value of transparency in Germany's political system. But this transparency also translates into extreme vulnerability and a lack of fear of danger. By the way, only some of the rooms here are protected against outside eavesdropping. In fact, if someone wanted to, they could be listening to us right now."

If some spy did indeed listen in to our conversation, nothing he heard would have surprised him. Kiesewetter, a former German Army colonel who entered politics in 2009, is considered the most "security-minded" politician in Germany. Ever since Russia's seizure of Crimea in 2014, he has used every possible platform to warn about the Russian threat and to urge the German leadership to adopt a more hawkish approach to the possibility of an armed clash with Moscow.

Kiesewetter's alarmism has not won him many fans, and even inside his own governing party he is seen as an outsider, some would say a thorn in its side. Unlike in Israeli politics, where a security background almost automatically translates into votes at the ballot box, in Germany, a country still grappling with its past and whose current DNA is deeply hostile to war in all its forms, the security-focused discourse Kiesewetter promotes has led to his removal from prominent party roles. It has even made him the target of a violent assault by a citizen who knocked him down while calling him a "warmonger," perhaps the harshest epithet one can direct at a German politician.

"The pillars of German society are politics, the economy and science," Kiesewetter explains. "We have a political culture of distrust toward security professionals, combined with deep ignorance in this field. It is no coincidence that since German reunification, politicians with a military background have disappeared from the stage. When I came into politics, not everyone was happy about it."

Kiesewetter is not particularly liked in the Kremlin either. He says that he appears on a Russian secret list of figures considered a threat to its security. "We have to tell the public the truth," he says. "If we do not take steps against Russian aggression in Europe, Russia will keep pushing our boundaries. We are acting like blind people."

Prisoners of conception

Kiesewetter's story, and the fragility of Germany's parliamentary complex, illustrate the state of Europe as a whole. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the continent has found itself caught between a hammer and an anvil. On the one hand, European states are doing their utmost to preserve stability, refraining from fully throwing their weight behind Ukraine and doing everything they can to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia. On the other hand, these same countries are looking anxiously eastward and seeing Russia arming itself to the teeth, and its president, Vladimir Putin, growing bolder and issuing ever more far-reaching statements. All this is happening while Europe still depends economically on Russian energy, and while the US is seeking to reduce the vast budgets it has been channeling to NATO, the military alliance meant to protect Europe against a third world war. "It is as if we are fighting Putin with one hand tied behind our back," complains Kiesewetter.

European anxiety about war diminishes the further west and south one moves across the continent. Poland and the Baltic states, which border or are close to Russia, are already making preparations on the ground for the possibility of an all-out war. In France, Britain and Spain, by contrast, preparations for such a clash are proceeding at a snail's pace, if at all. In this sense Germany, the economic giant located in the middle of Europe yet still at a safe distance from the Russian border, and the country meant to serve as NATO's main logistical base in any campaign to block Russia, acts as litmus paper for the European policy as a whole. "Germany is in the middle, and it is the one that needs to take responsibility and set the course," says Kiesewetter.

The German government has already begun taking a series of steps, some of them drastic by its standards, to prepare for a potential confrontation with Russia. Yet Kiesewetter remains uneasy. He says the German leadership is still trapped in what Israelis might call "an October 6 mindset": ignoring clear warning signs, turning its back on violations of sovereignty and assuming that if and when war breaks out, there will be advance notice. "It may be that Germany first needs to experience an intelligence failure like October 7 or September 11 in order to wake up and change its approach," Kiesewetter says. "I just hope that when such a failure occurs, if it does, it will not lead to a catastrophe on a massive scale."

Indeed, during a visit to Berlin last week it was impossible to ignore the quiet. Even the city's most central streets felt hushed. It is not a tense silence born of alertness, of ears pricked for sirens or explosions, but the calm of German politeness, which seems to rub off on the tourists as well. Even the official German figures we spoke to, who are well briefed on the intelligence picture, struggled to imagine that this quiet might suddenly be shattered. "Do you really believe that a Russian drone will suddenly land in the middle of Berlin?" one of them asked me in astonishment, scrutinizing my face. "This mindset of constantly fearing your neighbors is an Israeli mindset. In Europe things are different."

And yet, Germany in the autumn of 2025 is a country in the throes of a Zeitenwende, the "turning of the times," the term coined by former chancellor Olaf Scholz in a landmark speech he delivered in parliament days after Russia invaded Ukraine. This week the current German defense minister, Boris Pistorius, declared that "this is Europe's last peaceful summer." As one Israeli official who knows the intricacies of German politics puts it, "Germany is in the middle of a U-turn by an aircraft carrier. This is a state that is cutting itself off from economic dependence on Russia, arming itself and working on a law to reinstate compulsory military service, which is a radical change for it. And yet Kiesewetter is right. If war with Russia breaks out tomorrow, Germany currently has nothing to put on the table."

Grasping at air

In many ways, the war between Russia and Europe has already begun, and it is not confined to the borders of Ukraine. The buzzword on this front, almost a mantra in the mouths of politicians, officials and experts in Germany, Israel and other European countries, is "hybrid warfare."

The term refers to a long, ongoing string of sabotage incidents, influence operations, cyberattacks and other violent acts that Russia is carrying out against European states. It covers, for example, the mysterious severing of undersea communications cables in the Baltic Sea; an unusual explosion at the cargo terminal of Leipzig Airport in Germany; and media investigations that uncovered evidence of Russian use of agents recruited via social media to sow chaos and public panic in European countries.

A recent report by the British think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) found that since 2022, 66 "hybrid warfare" operations attributed to Russia have been carried out across Europe, including assassinations, attacks on infrastructure and even acts of terrorism. Thirty three of those operations took place in 2024 alone. In most cases, European governments preferred to absorb the blows, to make use of the carefully constructed Russian "deniability space," and to settle for tepid condemnations.

In recent months, however, the hybrid war with Russia has shifted up a gear. Russian fighter jets violated Estonian airspace, even swooping toward a German warship sailing in the Baltic Sea. In September, some 20 Russian drones crossed into Polish territory, also a NATO member state. "This is an attempt by the Kremlin to test NATO's responses via gradual escalations," Poland's foreign minister said afterward. Friedrich Merz, Germany's current chancellor, also broke with his habitual caution when he stated that "we are not at war, but we are not in a state of peace either." Since then, Russian drones have entered the territory of another NATO member, Romania, without prompting any military response.

In the weeks that followed, several incidents were recorded in which unmanned aerial vehicles were seen hovering above towns and cities in Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Belgium and Lithuania, among others, sometimes near airports and sensitive military facilities. German officials said these were "military drones for intelligence-gathering purposes," but did not explicitly link them to Moscow. In early October, airspace over Munich was closed, forcing dozens of flights to be canceled, after mysterious drones were spotted above the city during the Oktoberfest celebrations. In the aftermath, European interior ministers discussed creating a "drone wall" that would block aerial incursions from the direction of Russia, as well as legislative changes that would make it easier for armed forces to shoot down unmanned aircraft.

Ukraine first

These hesitant countermeasures stand in sharp contrast to Russia's rapid advances when it comes to drones. Over the past two years, Russia has raised its defense budget to levels unseen since the Cold War, and a large share of that money has gone to producing unmanned aircraft, the main weapon it is using in Ukraine. According to some estimates, by early 2026 Russia will be able to produce roughly 10,000 explosive drones a month, which would make it a global power in this sphere. Israelis will bring to mind the "Iranian night of missiles," when some 300 missiles and drones were launched at Israel. Now multiply that several times over.

Behind Russia's drone industry lies a story whose irony almost defies gravity, in every sense. In 2011, Iran used electronic warfare to take control of a CIA drone operating over Afghanistan and bring it down on its territory. Based on this "captured" American UAV, Iranian engineers developed the Shahed series of attack drones, whose most widely used model is the Shahed 136. As fate would have it, the engines installed in the early generation of these Iranian drones were made in Germany. "We know this, because engines manufactured by a German company were found in some of the drones that fell in Israel," says an Israeli official.

After the war in Ukraine broke out, cooperation between Russia and Iran tightened. Russia purchased thousands of Shahed drones from the Islamic Republic, and used them in Ukraine. The war turned out to be a highly useful testing ground from Russia's point of view. A study by the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) in the US described how, in the battle of minds that developed in the skies over Ukraine, the Russians began devising methods that refined their drone warfare capabilities, perhaps as preparation for future wars against additional countries.

In recent months, Russia has begun producing Shahed drones itself, according to one account with extensive help from China, while simultaneously improving their strike capabilities and flight ranges. The main drone production facility is in Yelabuga, about 1,000 kilometers east of Moscow, which the Ukrainians have tried and failed to hit several times.

"The Russians started out by producing the same model as the Iranian drone and gradually improved it," says Eitan Achlow, an expert in anti-drone defense. "This is an aircraft that flies low, at a speed of 80 to 100 knots, and carries warheads containing 10 to 50 kilograms (22 to 110 pounds) of explosives. Because many of its parts are made of fiberglass, it is hard to detect. The Russians have recently been changing the engine in order to mask the hot exhaust, which will make it harder to spot the drones with thermal sensors. They are also altering its antenna array to complicate the communications and navigation jamming the Ukrainians use, and increasing its flight speed. Today the Russians are manufacturing these drones at a murderous pace."

As part of Russia's method of warfare in Ukraine, it launches swarms of hundreds of explosive drones at once, with dummy drones mixed into the swarm. These carry no explosives and have cardboard bodies. The aim is to confuse the enemy's air defenses, and to do so at relatively low cost. "The attack drones cost around 30,000 to 40,000 dollars each, and the dummy drones cost a few thousand," Achlow estimates, "while the interceptor missiles cost millions. This is essentially an economic battle. Once the Russians accumulate a sufficiently large number of drones, they will be able to go to war against NATO, because there is no force in the world that can intercept such quantities. Imagine that Russia decides to invade one of the Baltic states and then suddenly, just as a warning shot, it launches 5,000 drones and a handful of them hit government buildings or financial institutions in a European capital. That would make it crystal clear to Europe that it has no real way of dealing with this."

Firing in all directions

The developments on the eastern front have not entirely escaped the attention of European states, especially Germany. In fact, the government of Chancellor Merz, who took office in May 2025, has begun implementing what looks like a far-reaching reform to strengthen Germany's military.

Already during coalition talks, the parties agreed that the additional spending on the German defense budget would not be counted as part of the national deficit. That decision enabled the government to allocate a staggering 377 billion euros for military procurement, with the goal of turning Germany's armed forces into "the strongest conventional army in Europe," in Merz's words. German officials confirm that the government recognizes that "Russia is planning something, and our armed forces are not ready," as one of them puts it.

Israel has naturally been drawn into this swirl of spending. Beyond the huge deal to purchase the Arrow 3 missile defense system from Israel Aerospace Industries, Germany has bought Spike anti-tank missiles from Israel and, according to media reports, drones as well. Beneath the surface, however, a long list of negotiations is underway between the German government and Israeli defense companies and security startups to acquire additional systems on a very large scale. "This is a window of opportunity for Israel to provide technology to Germany," says an Israeli source familiar with the issue, "because in a few years, Germany's own defense industry will catch up with Israel, and right now Berlin wants off-the-shelf solutions."

According to air defense expert Achlow, who is a member of one such defense startup, Israel must make things easier for startups working in this field, both by providing financial incentives and by easing restrictions imposed by the Defense Ministry's Defense Export Controls Agency. "Unlike the civilian high-tech sector, Israeli defense exports are shackled by regulation," he explains. "If nobody wakes up, Israeli companies will move abroad or quit the field altogether. We could miss a golden opportunity for the economy."

Israeli and German officials involved in these negotiations refuse to divulge details. "But Israel has advanced weapons systems, and you can imagine that Germany wants many of them," says one. An Israeli source who recently met with senior figures in the German defense establishment came away with the impression that, in terms of procurement, they are "firing in all directions." "In Germany they are watching Russia's rearmament with concern and are already examining the buildup of Russian forces near the borders with the Baltic states," he says. "The problem is that Germany still faces huge gaps, mainly in training and manpower."

Which brings us to one of Europe's biggest security challenges: soldiers, or more precisely, the lack of them. The German parliament is currently debating legislative amendments that would allow the state to reinstate compulsory military service, out of the recognition that buying equipment alone is not enough, and that soldiers are needed to operate it. Beyond the political hurdles facing such legislation, there are social factors that make it difficult for the German Army to increase its ranks. As one interviewee put it, "The Ukrainians enlisted en masse, but they did so because they had no choice after the Russian invasion. Do you really think young Europeans will give up their comfortable lives and rush off to die fighting Russians?"

A generation passes

This concern is well founded. A poll published in August 2025 found that 59 percent of Germans would not be willing to take up arms and fight, and in Italy the figure is even lower: only 16 percent of citizens would be ready to fight for their country.

On this point, Prof. Susanne Fischer, a lecturer in the intelligence studies department at the Federal University of Applied Administration in Berlin, says: "There is now a public debate about the need to bring back compulsory service, which would require young people to enlist in the army after high school. This debate has intensified as the possibility of war with Russia has become more concrete."

Fischer teaches and lives in Berlin, but we met at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, where she was attending an annual intelligence studies conference. Talking to her, one gets the impression that even if the German government has begun taking steps toward a possible clash with Russia, the German public is still largely lagging far behind. "As a Berlin resident and as a mother, of course I am worried about the possibility of war with Russia," she says. "My 11-year-old son also asks me, 'Mom, what will happen if Russian missiles explode in Berlin?' But these feelings are not widespread among most of the public.

"I am an academic who works on security issues, so I think about this more. Politicians and experts have also started talking more about the possibility of war with Russia. There have been public debates recently focused on this and on Germany's security challenges. But 'ordinary' citizens, whoever they may be, are still unaware of the security challenges facing Germany. I think it is important that more and more people in Germany and across Europe begin to talk about the dangers coming from Russia, in order to raise public awareness."

Even in Germany, where the public debate on security is at least beginning to stir, it remains dormant further west, in Britain. "Recent polls show that only a small proportion of young people in Western European countries would be willing to take part in a war," says Dr. Huw Dylan, deputy head of the intelligence studies department at King's College London, who also attended the intelligence conference. "But since the sword of war is not actually hanging over our heads, those figures are not necessarily significant. There is no doubt that in a country like Britain, which enjoys the privilege of being far from the border with Russia, the tension is not felt, in contrast to places like Estonia or Poland. In any event, it is clear that a hybrid war is already underway in Europe, and there are people who fear that this war will escalate. But I do not fear a full-scale war in the foreseeable future."

Zero hour 

In my conversations with European officials, I tried to understand whether they had learned anything from Israel's experience on October 7, when the Hamas terrorist organization surprised Israel with its murderous assault. Yet even the "security hawk" Kiesewetter cannot imagine an absolute surprise on that scale. "The war will not begin with Russian tanks charging into Berlin, nor with airstrikes on Germany," he says emphatically. "If anything, the war will start with a move by Putin against the Baltic states."

Prof. Fischer, an intelligence expert, also does not sound like someone about to shatter the prevailing conception. Like the other German interviewees, she identifies 2029 as the year in which war with Russia is most likely to break out, if it does. Israeli officials who recently met senior NATO figures say those officials also pointed to 2029 as the target year for the alliance's war readiness.

"Europe can certainly learn from the Israeli experience," Fischer says in this regard. "Intelligence experts in Europe are already saying that if there is an assessment that war will break out in 2029, that does not mean it cannot erupt tomorrow. The pretext that will supposedly justify a Russian attack could appear at any moment, before we are prepared.

"At the same time, the liberal democratic states of Europe benefit from peace and stability, and no European leader has any interest in attacking Russia. What I can imagine is a scenario in which Putin tests Europe's willingness to set limits for him, for example in places such as the Baltic states."

Many of the European experts we spoke with argued that Putin has led Russia into economic dependence on its war industry. "I fear that if he ends the war in Ukraine, he will have no choice but to 'look for' another war in order to preserve his status and Russia's war economy," Fischer says. "I hope that if that happens, NATO will pass the test and force Putin to back down."

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Documents obtained by the Financial Times provide the first evidence of Moscow engaging Tehran on nuclear knowledge. Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst, told the outlet that Tehran's experts were "seeking laser technology and expertise that could help them validate a nuclear weapon design without conducting a nuclear explosive test".

Iran insists its program is peaceful, while Russia opposes a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic. Before the US and Israel bombed Iran's facilities in June, Washington believed weaponization remained deactivated but noted shortened timelines for potential bomb construction.

DamavandTec, an SPND front company, arranged the St Petersburg travel for Iranian laser specialists last November, documents reviewed by the Financial Times show. They met with Laser Systems, a US-sanctioned Russian firm working on dual-use technology.

Ali Kalvand and DamavandTec had organized previous meetings using diplomatic passports, an August Financial Times investigation found. The US State Department sanctioned them in October for attempting "to procure items applicable to the development of nuclear explosive devices from foreign suppliers" and noting they had "facilitated travel for Iranian nuclear experts to Russia".

Kalvand arranged this second trip following an invitation from Laser Systems director Dmitry Vasilyev for "technological collaboration". While the invitation addressed DamavandTec employees, records reviewed by the Financial Times identify the visitors as physicists from defense-linked Iranian universities.

Andrey Savin of Laser Systems visited Tehran in February 2025 to meet SPND affiliates. Laser Systems holds FSB permits for work on state secrets. DamavandTec operates as a procurement broker for restricted components, according to the US State Department.

The Financial Times previously reported DamavandTec's attempts to acquire tritium for boosting warhead yields. Iran denies seeking weapons. Nicole Grajewski of Carnegie Endowment told the outlet the meetings offer "strong evidence that Russia was assisting Iran in its nuclear weapons-related research, with state-affiliated Russian institutions providing dual-use technology and knowledge transfer".

"This activity looks like it is state sanctioned at a high level on the Russian and Iranian sides," Grajewski added. These revelations follow US-Israeli strikes that damaged but did not destroy Iran's infrastructure, despite Donald Trump claiming the program was "obliterated".

Late September saw the enforcement of penalties after France, Germany, and the UK activated a "snapback" mechanism, referencing Iran's "significant non-performance" of its nuclear commitments.

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Modern Ukrainian contrasts. Some save a camel, others repair equipment… pic.twitter.com/iAKkiYLO5Y

— MAKS 25 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) October 27, 2025

 In the video, released by one of the Ukrainian army units, Ukrainian army fighters can be seen standing next to a damaged M-113 APC that was hit and working to repair it. A few seconds after the video starts, a white pickup truck arrives from the front, carrying several more fighters, with a two-humped camel walking behind it, tied with a rope.

The unit that posted the video explained the camel was taken from a Russian position captured in a Ukrainian attack and that the animal, which is not found in the plains of eastern Ukraine, was wandering confused near the position. Russian army forces are known to use animals for transport or mobility purposes for fighters, as their units struggle increasingly with shortages of motorized vehicles damaged by Ukrainian fire. In the past, videos were released of Russian soldiers using horses, mules, and donkeys to move around the combat zone, which is full of mines and subject to constant threat from Ukrainian drones.

Bactrian camel somewhere in Russia or eastern Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/trbcEZVqDz

— History of Khorâsân and the Persianate World (@BiruniKhorasan) December 15, 2024

 The two-humped camel, or Bactrian camel by its scientific name, is a beast of burden domesticated in the deserts of Central Asia, and its thick fur provides protection not only from the heavy heat prevailing in the deserts during summer months but also from the cold and snows of winter. These camels can easily withstand the harsh Ukrainian winter and can carry a large amount of equipment.

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According to the US Treasury Department, the move is intended to strike the heart of the Russian economy and pressure the Kremlin to return to the negotiating table, due to "Russia's lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine."

"This is the most severe action taken since President Donald Trump assumed office," the Treasury said in a statement, explaining that the sanctions aim to "Increase pressure on Russia's energy sector and degrade the Kremlin's ability to raise revenue for its war machine and support its weakened economy."

"Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire," said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent. "Given President Putin's refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia's two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin's war machine. Treasury is prepared to take further action if necessary to support President Trump's effort to end yet another war. We encourage our allies to join us in and adhere to these sanctions."

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The Russian opposition website The Insider was the first to report on the leak on Thursday, after "Black Mirror" released the first batch of documents. The following day, screenshots of an internal pricing table detailing aircraft sales appeared online.

According to the hackers' publication, the leak includes more than 300 documents from the Russian state defense conglomerate Rostec, outlining pricing structures and arms deals worth hundreds of millions of dollars, as well as mechanisms for bypassing Western sanctions.

The military intelligence website Army Recognition analyzed the pricing table in an effort to decode the client codes listed in it. Code 364, identified as Iran, describes a deal for 48 Sukhoi-35 jets equipped with avionics and electronic warfare systems, valued at roughly €589 million ($635 million), with expected delivery by 2028 and a 15% advance payment.

Code 012, identified as Algeria, includes two separate contracts: electronic warfare equipment for Sukhoi-34 aircraft worth $176 million, scheduled for completion by 2026, and full avionics kits for fifth-generation Sukhoi-57 fighters valued at $239 million.

The website cross-referenced the quantities and timelines with previous data on Russian arms sales and concluded that Iran and Algeria were the most likely clients, though it emphasized that the information has yet to be officially confirmed.

It is important to note that the authenticity of the latest leak remains uncertain, and may reflect outdated information, as does the date on which the referenced pricing table was prepared.

In March 2023, Iran officially confirmed for the first time that it had reached an agreement with Russia to purchase Sukhoi-35 fighter jets. "The Sukhoi-35 aircraft are technically suitable for the Iranian Air Force, and therefore Iran has finalized a contract for their purchase," the Iranian delegation to the UN General Assembly in New York said at the time.

A month earlier, Iran unveiled a new underground air force base designed to accommodate advanced fighter jets. The deal was seen as part of a broader exchange following Iran's supply of hundreds of Shahed-136 attack drones to Moscow for use in the war in Ukraine.

The Sukhoi-35 is a fourth-generation advanced fighter aircraft, similar in class to Israel's F-16I jets, intended to modernize Iran's aging air force, which relies primarily on older F-14, F-4 and MiG-29 aircraft. Another potential addition occasionally mentioned as an upgrade option for Iran's air fleet is China's J-10 fighter.

Meanwhile, the sale of 12 Sukhoi-57 jets to Algeria would make it the first African country to operate fifth-generation aircraft. Russia and Algeria maintain close diplomatic and military relations, and Algeria, locked in longstanding rivalry with Morocco, seeks to strengthen its air superiority in the region.

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