US President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from Syria and allow the Turks to launch a broad offensive was not an impulsive one. There is no doubt that leaving the Kurds in their current position was a tough one to understand and accept, but the dynamics of the Middle East require a different kind of thinking, and the reality is sometimes brutal.
The Middle East is heating up, and things are hottest in the Strait of Hormuz, where for several months Iran has been battling the West – including the US, Britain – as well as the Sunni Gulf states. The battle reached a new intensity a few days ago, when Iranian satellite groups attacked Saudi oil facilities, and now the region is heading into the next round. No one knows what each new day will bring.
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The Americans, along with the rest of the western world, have a clear interest in maintaining their alliance with the moderate Sunni nations. In that context, the Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia demands that America take action, even if it's only symbolic. In the Obama era, we saw what happens when the only superpower retreats from its support of its allies: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak was ousted and the entire region was sucked into the whirlpool of the Arab Spring.
Trump has three obvious interests in the Middle East: first, to uphold the US's image as a superpower; second, the economic interest of Persian Gulf oil; and third, positioning himself ahead of the 2020 presidential election.
On none of those three points can America hesitate – especially when we are talking about a president who is a reaction to the ineffectual administration of Barak Obama who is once again asking the public to put its faith in him. Anyone who thought that the retreat from Syria and abandonment of the Kurds meant that America was pulling out of the Middle East is wrong. It was an operational decision that was designed to focus efforts on Iran.
It is well-known that Iran and Turkey are open rivals for Middle East hegemony. The Americans understand that perfectly. Turkey's operation in northern Syria is shaking up Iran in two aspects: one because Turkey is flexing its muscles, which is bad for the Iranians, especially when it's happening in Syria, an Iranian ally. Second, there is the danger of the Islamic State re-emerging. Iran has good reason to worry since ISIS's main enemy is Shiite Islam. The Iranians have a lot to fear from the Turkish maneuvers in northern Syria. And remember – the Turks are Sunnis.
When those issues are combined with the US bolstering its forces in Saudi Arabia, the only conclusion is that the US goal is to increase pressure on Iran. This, in addition to paralyzing sanctions, should force the ayatollahs to make a decision about how they will proceed – whether or not to go back to the negotiating table or persist with escalation.
There is another factor in the equation – Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia, after all, has been working to stabilize Syria for five years. Trump's move and the Turkish operation could put Putin under pressure to steer the Iranians into talks. None of the actors wants to see further escalation, but it appears that the Americans are posing the bigger challenge, and the game is heading into critical moments: what will the Iranians do when Trump makes things hard for them and he himself is facing an election?
Continued escalation of the situation in the Persian Gulf does not serve Iran's interests since its economy has already sustained a fatal blow. However, it's not certain they take the West seriously. It should be said that if Trump intends to create serious leverage, he needs to have more forces at the ready around the Gulf. This might be why the US cut down its involvement in Syria.
Amid all this, we must not ignore the human suffering the Kurdish issue entails. While Trump took a tough line toward Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lest he harm them, the significance of the current situation is clear – the Kurds might be facing a tragedy.
This can teach us that nothing has really changed in our world in the 21st century. National interests come first and humane concerns are marginalized. A people without self-determination and without a sovereign state doesn't "count." This dynamic only underscores how lucky our generation is; there is no way to know what would have happened if the historic decision of Nov. 29, 1947 to declare a national homeland for us had never been made.
