Prof. Udi Lebel

Udi Lebel is a lecturer at Ariel University and a researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies

Winds of war may not be all that's blowing in Ukraine

British PM Boris Johnson and US President Joe Biden are not creating a public agenda, they are reading it to see whether the public will give them the legitimacy to do something.

 

On the eve of the first Gulf War, based on materials that were not all authentic, and on a very real sense of Kuwaiti anxiety the American public was exposed to the distress have those living under the danger of Saddam Hussein invading their country.

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When President George H.W. Bush declared that the United States would not stand aside and would send military forces to the area,  American public support was sky-high.  This even though no American denied that Bush would rake in profits from the war. After all, every just war is lucrative for arms companies or politicians.

But Bush taught America that her values were being trampled – national honor, personal honor, liberal honor, and democratic honor –and that there are moments when one has to fight the ethos of evil in the name of the ethos of good.

Studies found that Americans continued to support the war, even after they learned that some of the horror stories published about the acts committed by the Iraqis in Kuwait were exaggerated and that it was doubtful that Saddam Hussein even had non-conventional weapons.

Media studies conducted in the wake of the war showed the power of leadership: When leadership is determined and charismatic, it is stirring and convincing. The "liberal society" that is "sensitive to loss," that is "apathetic" or "individualistic" is not necessarily so.

It is in the power of the leader to shape agendas and mass psychology. It was then and it is today. But no leader has stepped into the current vacuum and those that are supposed to be the models for the free world,  who are supposed to fight for its values, have instead chosen to be, at the very best, pundits or public opinion analysts.

This weekend we saw one of the feeblest media displays of leadership. At first, it was President Joe Biden who, as if he were a  CNN pundit, said that he was "convinced" Putin will invade Ukraine in the coming days, to awaken public opinion not in the world but among the American public. He even sent Ned Price the State Department spokesman to act as a pundit as well.

Price's reaction to the concentration of Russian forces on the border was: "I was a soldier myself… You don't do these sort of things for no reason and you certainly don't do them if you are getting ready to pack up and go home."

The British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, a great admirer of Winston Churchill, went one step further, when, in a series of interviews, he estimated that not only is Russia planning to invade Ukraine from the Donbas region in the east, but that it was also likely to invade at the same time from Belarus and the area surrounding Kyiv.

These are two leaders, who, had they given parallel addresses stating that the free world is in danger and that they had decided that their militaries would do everything in their power to stop this Russian madness, would most likely have received unprecedented popular support that would have swept other countries. Only this time, they sufficed with punditry, expecting or perhaps even imploring for spontaneous reactions from civil groups or veterans who would beseech them to act. They never thought for a moment, God forbid, to do something proactive.

These are not leaders who create an agenda. At best they are readers of the public's agenda, treading delicately to create a small experiment and see if its results give them legitimization to send another squadron or declare more sanctions. Biden and Johnson it appears are not aware of the fact that leaders have the power to shape the framework the tone, the position, and the political psychology of the public and the media. Instead running away from leadership as fast as the wind can carry them.

We must end here with a note about the Israeli arena: Should we face a similar precipice,  the danger of a multi-front invasion or a missile attack that would be difficult to stand up to, we should not expect automatic assistance from friends that call themselves allies. They will turn to public opinion in their countries and explain Israel's distress,  they will explain that perhaps soon Jews will be slaughtered in Jerusalem.

They will feel out public opinion to see if it leads to a demonstration in Washington that implores them to send some kind of assistance to the only democracy in the Middle East. We will receive sympathy and empathy, but until we receive real military assistance, we will have to stand we will have to face the inferno by ourselves.

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