The coalition will never be the same after Monday's vote. If until now, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid have been able to smile and assure everyone it was "business as usual" for the coalition despite it rolling from one political punch to another, the failed vote on the bill seeking to ensure Israeli jurisdiction over settlers in Judea and Samaria, Monday's vote upended any chance of optimism.
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The Bennett government is on its last legs and it is only a matter of time before it falls.
Two political moments Monday signal the coalition's impending demise: the first is not only the fact that the jurisdiction bill was voted down but that it was voted down by Ra'am – a coalition member. The Islamist party's MK bolted the Knesset plenum ahead of the vote, sinking it.
The second was when former coalition chair MK Itid Silman actively – vocally – opposed the appointment of MK Matan Kahana as religious services minister. This indicated that Silman was clearly unfazed by the treats to declare her a rogue MK – not when it comes to important bills the opposition wants to vote down.
All this means that the government has officially lost the majority in parliament and from this point forward it will be unable to legislate – or vote on anything else – sans the support of the opposition.
This renders Bennett's government crippled and ineffective; one that cannot even enforce voting discipline on its own members and is therefore constantly subject to extortion from all directions to ensure its survival.
On the eve of the government's inception, its leaders, especially from Yamina and New Hope, explained that the breach of campaign promises not to sit in a government with Ra'am and Meretz is the lesser evil and a better alternative than a dysfunctional government that is unable to manage state affairs.
On Monday, the government became just that.
The real question, however, is what is next for Sa'ar, and does he mean to make amends or push the government over the edge. By pushing the bill to a vote a month ahead of time and declaring that it was critical to the government's survival –as well as by refusing to categorically deny that his party was negotiating with Likud – Sa'ar practically instigated the crisis.
If the government's days are numbers due to last night, Sa'ar will have been the one to have pulled the plug. At present, it is unclear whether this is the result he was hoping for or whether he realized the magnitude of his mistake only when it was too late.
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