When Naftali Bennett stepped down as prime minister, he apologized to party activists for the role having taken up all of his time and not leaving him any time for politics. Now Yair Lapid is feeling that himself. In recent weeks, his people have been complaining that Lapid has no time for the campaign and that the many meetings he must attend as prime minister are doing serious damage to Yesh Atid's preparations for the election.
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Neither Lapid nor Bennett has the necessary experience to maneuver between the different demands. This is in total contrast to Benjamin Netanyahu, who not only knew how to make time for a campaign, but even led it himself, while running the country as prime minister.
Lapid's difficulty functioning led his people to decide that, given the circumstances, the diplomatic campaign is the most effective and plausible one at this time, that his job as prime minister is actually the campaign. They rushed to fill his calendar with important diplomatic events that comprised a keystone of Yesh Atid's campaign in the upcoming election.
It got underway when US President Joe Biden visited Israel and Lapid visited Jordan. Now the Prime Minister's Office and the Foreign Ministry are working on a major event to mark two years since the Abraham Accords were signed, to be held in a country party to the accords, with the highest-ranking national leaders present. Lapid's staff wants it to take place before the election.
While the campaign is underway, Lapid is also scheduled to make an official visit to Morocco and possibly one to Egypt (unlikely to happen), and in September, five days before Rosh Hashanah, speak at the UN General Assembly as well as meet with heads of state who will be in New York for the event.
Lapid's staff, like Netanyahu's and Benny Gantz's, think that the election will be decided by the moderate Right – those two mandates worth of voters who don't want Netanyahu. In that sense, Lapid is at a disadvantage, both because he is less capable than Gantz of forming a government, at least according to the current polls, and also because he is considered more of a leftist and stands at the head of the left-wing camp in Israel.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, doesn't need to split his time between different jobs. After all, Opposition leader isn't an overly demanding role, but nevertheless he finds himself having to divide his time between the Likud primaries and dealing with other troubles, namely the Haredi parties.
His main mission this week was to silence United Torah Judaism leader Moshe Gafni. Even before the election was under way, Gafni was singing a tune that sounded off to Netanyahu and his people, seemingly indicating that his commitment to the right-wing bloc was weakening. When he kept talking even after the Knesset dissolved itself, Netanyahu's circle went into war mode. At the moment, they are less concerned with what Gafni will do after the election and more concerned with keeping him from talking now. They can't attack Gafni and drive him farther away. So they needed to persuade him and the rabbis around him to keep quiet.
The high point came at a meeting between Netanyahu and Gafni this week that Gafni didn't want to have, but Netanyahu insisted on. On Monday, Netanyahu met with Yitzhak Golfknopf, chairman of Agudath Yisrael, the Hassidic faction of UTJ, and only sat down with Gafni on Tuesday. To avoid offending him, Netanyahu's staff held back the picture of his meeting with Goldknopf until after the Gafni sit-down.
Netanyahu's message in the meeting was sharp. He said that remarks about the possibility of joining another government hurt both UTJ and the right-wing camp. He said that there were voters who would prefer Gantz to himself, but they would be forced to vote Likud if they realized that the only way Gantz could form a government would be with Ra'am and the Joint Arab List. Gantz, Netanyahu said, understood that and was careful to say he would form a government with the Haredim. Netanyahu said that those claims could be broken down easily if not for the fact that the possibility of the Haredim joining Gantz was being raised by the Haredim themselves.
Netanyahu warned Gafni about a rift between Degel Hatorah and Agudat Yisrael, and told him that if they ran on separate tickets, one or the other might not make it past the minimum electoral threshold. Netanyahu showed Gafni recent polls and studies that indicated that UTJ could lose a mandate if it did not align itself with the right-wing bloc. They also showed that UTJ could increase its position by a mandate if 81% of its supporters voted for it. The data showed that about 30,000 UTJ supporters did not cast ballots in the last election, or the one before it.
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The week was a resounding success for Netanyahu. Goldknopf and Shas leader Arye Deri announced that they would only join a government with Netanyahu and the Right, and Gafni veered in his direction, too. Netanyahu associates think that Gafni won't be making any more remarks about joining Gantz for the next few weeks, but they know that they'll need to keep their eye on him.
Gafni's motivation is different. He sees an independent path as a way to more electoral potential, not less. Activists are getting fired up, but the problem is, it's only happening in his own wing – the Lithuanian Haredi sector. The Hassidim want Netanyahu, and so does Shas.
The busier part of Netanyahu's days is devoted to the Likud primaries, scheduled for Aug. 10. He thinks that that party's Knesset list can add or cost it two mandates. At first, he considered more involvement, but then pulled back after his support for two candidates led to a flood of tears and shouts by others who wanted the same public backing.
Right now, the only one Netanyahu is actively helping is Boaz Bismuth. The former editor-in-chief of Israel Hayom has taken on a tough political fight. He is running for a spot on a national list, competing against former ministers and current MKs, each of whom was given a state-funded budget of 350,000 shekels ($105,000). Likud voting patterns opt for serving MKs over newcomers. It's hard, if not impossible, for an outsider to find a place on a faction list where there are only 12 reserved spots.
Despite Netanyahu's decision not to express public support for specific candidates, he has laid out more or less what he wants the list to look like. He wants strong right-wing candidates, ones that behave and won't be likely to defect. In other words: Yariv Levin, Amir Ohana, Ofir Akunis, Gila Gamliel, Tzachi Hanegbi, Galit Distal Etbaryan, Eli Cohen, Yoav Kisch, and Shlomo Karai. In addition to these 10, Netanyahu wants David Amsalem, Mai Golan, Miri Regev, David Biton, Yuli Edelstein and, of course, Nir Barkat. But there's only so much he can do.
