The Israeli military strike scenario has once again come to the forefront of events and media discussions. The background is this: according to Israeli reports, the Israeli Air Force, together with the US Air Force, conducted one of the largest simulated offensive strike drills on Iran's nuclear program in recent years.
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Over the Mediterranean Sea, the long-range operations necessary to reach Iran were conducted, including aerial refueling of fighter jets.
The backdrop of these maneuvers raises the question of the level of Israel-Iran tensions and the prospects for escalation of the confrontation between the two sides, especially after the return of Benjamin Netanyahu as head of the Israeli government after the recent elections and the presence of some of the hardliners in his coalition government.
Thus, it can be said that the Israeli-US operations themselves appear to be a procedural matter that does not necessarily indicate a military strike scenario, for several reasons, including the fact that military exercises between the two sides are a regular occurrence as strategic allies.
There are many joint exercise programs, both bilateral and involving other regional and international parties.
So the exercises on a procedural level do not fuel the idea of escalation or suggest that they will actually come close to it, even if the recent exercises were qualitative in nature: They included long-range flights comparable to those that might be carried out in the event of an attack plan on Iran's nuclear facilities, in addition to training exercises to refuel fighter jets in the air.
It's an experience that directly fits the escalation scenario, but it's really just a routine. Developing a plan for such attacks requires training to be able to execute them repeatedly. It is something that technically takes place whether the decision is made or not, and therefore is not necessarily indicative of it.
The Israeli maneuvers themselves, as mentioned, are a routine operational procedure and an important deterrent to the Iranian side. It should be remembered that Iran is probably one of the countries that conducts military exercises most regularly, exceeding the pace of most countries in the world.
Tehran views these exercises as a weapon of deterrence and a constant show of force, although it claims that they are a "message of peace" to neighboring countries. Therefore, Iran and Israel exchange messages related to the maneuvers and use them in the context of calculated tensions between both sides.
Iran's intervention in the war in Ukraine through the deployment of drones, which actively participated in the bombing of Ukrainian civilian targets, has also attracted Israeli attention and caused great concern. The bombing of civilian infrastructure and facilities is an element of any potential confrontation between Israel and Iran.
The ayatollah regime is expected to rely heavily on its paramilitary forces and sectarian proxies such as Lebanese Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations to bomb similar targets inside Israel. Israel's efforts to strengthen its military capabilities in the face of the growing Iranian threat, in coordination with its ally, the US, have thus accelerated.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi recently visited Washington, DC, where he met with senior US military officials, in particular Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley and Michael Corella, commander of US Central Command, who confirmed even before Kohavi's visit that the two sides are cooperating at all levels to gather intelligence, neutralize threats and prepare for different scenarios.
There may be some concern that Netanyahu is implementing a plan to attack Iran. This is reflected in the remarks of outgoing Defense Minister Benny Gantz, in which he stated that Israel has the capability and full readiness to strike Iran's nuclear facilities.
However, he said that the Israeli prime minister-elect would have to consider the issue "very carefully" before ordering an attack. This was interpreted as a warning of the possible consequences of such a strike, which many experts believe would open the door to a full-scale confrontation between Iran and Israel.
Experts agree that Israel is in a strategic position where it is fully prepared to launch a warning strike against a potential nuclear threat. However, the same situation indicates that Iran's strategic position in several areas near Israel's borders poses a serious threat to Israel. Thus, the decision to launch a pre-emptive strike depends on very sophisticated warnings.
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It could be the last scenario in the plans of a confrontation between Israel and Iran, especially given the geographical spread of Iranian nuclear facilities and the difficulty of determining the effectiveness of a strike to completely neutralize the Iranian nuclear threat.
Therefore, there are other options that might be more effective from a realistic point of view, such as cyberattacks, covert operations, and other things that have proven effective in recent years and that do not entail significant liabilities. Another important question concerns the administration's position on a scenario for a possible Israeli strike on Iran.
One could argue here that the Biden administration may not be inclined to give Israel the green light in this case.
However, it might do so if it learns that Iran is accelerating uranium enrichment and is approaching or crossing the nuclear threshold, and if the goal is to improve the Democrats' chances of winning the upcoming presidential election, especially given the relative easing of tensions in Sino-US relations and efforts to calm them at the recent summit between Biden and Xi. This could worry Iran and increase the likelihood that it will fall victim to a possible entente between the three great powers, China, the US, and Russia.
