Pushing American military forces out of the Gulf region has been a persistent goal of Iranian leadership. It has influenced numerous Iranian operations and plans throughout the years. The two sides have been engaged in a proxy conflict in Iraq for years, which eventually spilled over into Syria. American forces and Iranian-backed militias engage in occasional indirect confrontations on Syrian soil.
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According to reports, armed groups backed by Iran attacked US forces in Syria around 78 times in 2021. The US forces only responded three times to these repeated attacks. The latest operation by Iranian militias against a US military base in northern Syria caused the death of one contractor and injured five US soldiers.
This incident raises questions about the potential course of these confrontations and whether they might result in the withdrawal of US forces from northern Syria, similar to what occurred in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other places.
Multiple American sources confirmed that the US will not withdraw its forces from northern Syria. The Biden administration believes that the US forces respond to attacks targeting them "proportionally" and stresses their dedication to maintaining American troops in Syria. President Joe Biden told Iran to "be prepared for us to act forcefully to protect our people".
The American forces in Syria function under the guise of the international coalition against ISIS. According to several sources, they comprise approximately 90 soldiers, with the majority stationed in regions controlled by Kurdish fighters in northern and northeastern Syria,. Their primary role is to provide support for the Syrian Democratic Forces.
At present, it is challenging for the Biden administration to determine whether to withdraw US forces from Syria. This is because the decision to withdraw forces from Afghanistan had adverse consequences, coupled with the timing and proximity to the upcoming US presidential election, in which President Biden is anticipated to seek re-election. These factors decrease the chances of making such a decision, except in cases of significant human losses among US forces, where the costs of losses exceed the political benefits of maintaining US forces in Syria.
The Iranian missile strikes on American bases in Syria reveal the magnitude of the challenge confronting the US, as it has failed to dissuade Iran. The Iranian regime perceives that American influence is diminishing, and China's increasing clout in the Middle East supports Iran's aspirations to compel Washington to pull out its troops from the entire region. This puts the US in a challenging predicament, testing its trust and credibility with its regional allies, calling it to prove its power, influence, and dedication to preserving its interests in the area.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries' reduced tensions with Iran may embolden Iran to intensify pressure on the US by attacking its forces in Syria. However, the pace of Iranian aggression depends on how the US reacts to each Iranian attack.
The US has been responding to these attacks in a limited and targeted manner, without launching a more forceful and deterrent response that would prevent future attacks. The effectiveness and precision of Iranian attacks, carried out by missiles and drones, are a significant factor in this approach.
Washington is concerned that Iran may expand the scale of its attacks, leading to more significant losses in American military bases. This puts the White House in a challenging position to deter Iran by taking action, either by launching a large retaliatory military operation with all the potential risks involved or by accepting humiliation and staying silent. The latter is the most difficult and unacceptable option, given the complex challenges that the US faces in many areas of influence and operations.
The problem with the above situation is that the repeated success of Iran's strikes against US military bases may embolden more attacks to either extract concessions from the US in the overall relationship between Tehran and Washington or to demonstrate the effectiveness of Iran's long-arm policy and proxy war. This would, in turn, cement Iran's influence in Syria and elsewhere and keep the regional situation as it is without significant change.
Moreover, this will inevitably lead to further weakening of the security relationships between the US and its Middle Eastern allies due to Washington's shortcomings, decreasing deterrent capability, and failure to maintain its traditional influence in the region.
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