The fragmentation of the Joint Arab List ahead of the Nov. 1 election into three different slates could have historic repercussions: The list has self-imploded to the point that the next Knesset might have no representation of Israel's Arab citizens for the first time since its founding.
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Polls show that all the Arab lists will be beaten badly, and even the two larger ones could fail to cross the minimum electoral threshold to win seats. Balad's decision to stay out of the Joint Arab List was motivated by its desire to undermine its leaders – Hadash chief MK Ayman Odeh and Ta'al leader Ahmad Tibi – ahead of their possible endorsement or de-facto support of Prime Minister Yair Lapid for a second term (after the election, the Israeli president will have to gauge how much support each candidate has in the parliament before he selects a new head of government).
Balad apparently realized that they were gradually losing their electorate's support. The leadership changes, the limited resources, the radical agenda they had been pursuing, and the legal troubles some of its prominent figures have found themselves in – including three elected lawmakers – had all hurt the party.
Since its founding in 1995, Balad has been the bitter enemy of Hadash, which had until then been considered the de facto representative of Arabs in the Knesset. Hadash's glee as the Joint Arab List disintegrated was great, as this was the first time in 28 years that the bourgeois rival that had become the home of intellectuals in the Arab society faces the real possibility of being wiped off the political map (at least at the national level.
The Arab parties will have to find a way to avoid the biggest electoral defeat of Arab parties; they will have to run a campaign that would get Arab voters to the polls, regardless of which Arab party they end up voting for.
If Arab turnout is 40% or lower as the polls project, Arab parties will have been dealt a potentially fatal blow due to the apathy among Arab voters. Assuming Israel has another election some six months later, this could create a golden opportunity to rethink their strategy and to create a new Arab party – or perhaps two – that would present a new agenda. This is not a far-fetched scenario.
The Arab sector is facing a severe crisis of leadership. The fact that none of the Zionist parties have Arabs in safe spots in the candidate lists should set off the alarm bells among Jewish voters, not just among Arabs. After all, a majority of Arabs do not want to take part in Israel's national politics but instead prefer to focus on where they have the most clout: local authorities.
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