The main headlines on Saturday in Iran were dominated by one issue: the brilliant victory of Iran's soccer team over Japan and its advancing to the next stage of the Asian Cup. Now that we are clear as to what Iranians are prioritizing right now, we can scroll down a bit and get to the news that interests us in Israel – namely, the ongoing tit-for-tat between the Islamic Republic and the US in Syria and Iraq.
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On Friday evening, the US began attacking targets associated with the Quds Force – the external arm of the Revolutionary Guards – in Iraq and Syria. On Saturday, right below soccer news in the papers, there were reports of this attack as well as counterattacks by an organization called The Islamic Resistance of Iraq – one of many organizations supported by Iran – on American bases in Syria and Iraq. Attacking through proxy organizations allows the Islamic Republic to deny responsibility.
The US strikes on Friday came in response to a UAV attack on an American base in Jordan near the Syrian border – an attack for which that Iraqi organization claimed responsibility, and in which three American soldiers were killed.
The Americans failed to realize that it was an enemy UAV because they thought it was one of theirs returning from an attack. Biden concluded his speech in response to the incident with the words: "'Have no doubt, we will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing."
These words are very reminiscent of Iran's reactions whenever one of the Quds Force commanders is "martyred" courtesy of the US or Israel: revenge in a time and manner deemed appropriate.
Neither the US nor the Islamic Republic in having the situation in the region escalate into World War III. Therefore, the Islamic Republic prefers to leave the dirty work to proxy organizations, especially the Islamic Resistance in Iraq.
Nevertheless, there have been several attacks that the Revolutionary Guards have directly taken responsibility for, against Iran's enemies in Pakistan and Kurdistan. In Kurdistan, a wealthy businessman was killed along with his baby daughter in an attack on their home that was identified as a "Mossad headquarters." The "proof" that he was a Mossad agent was a picture of him with a Chabad rabbi in Russia, which was quickly proven to be a Photoshop fake. After each assassination and attack, the targeted side declares that revenge will come "in a time and manner that seems appropriate to us."
This happened four years ago after the US had General Qassem Soleimani promoted to the coveted status of "martyr" (or as the Iranians say – to the status of cutlet); it happened on each of the anniversaries of his death, especially on the last anniversary, and also nine days before that when Razi Mousavi, Quds Force's chief logistician, was assassinated in Syria; it happened after Hamas senior terrorist Saleh al-Arouri was assassinated in Lebanon on the eve of Soleimani's anniversary and on that very day ISIS carried out a mass attack on the Soleimani memorial procession.
The reason for the declarations and reprisals through proxy organizations is that both powers know that if they let things slide, the other side may try the next time to carry out an even bigger operation or assassination. The second danger for Iran is domestic public opinion. The regime in Tehran is certainly authoritarian and violent, but public opinion still matters: It is important that opponents of the regime understand that they should not rear their heads. The regime has to show that it won't let people just attack it and its interests without hitting back. It also faces criticism from the right, and it needs to show its critics that it does not display weakness.
It is likely that this delicate equilibrium will be maintained. Neither side really wants this war, but neither side can back down when the other is still attacking.
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