Israel stands at a pivotal moment, with its actions against Hezbollah on the Northern Front poised to shape its geopolitical destiny and identity within the Middle East. The question looms large: Are we a sovereign regional force, or have we become a US protectorate, navigating from one tactical operation to the next in search of fleeting peace?
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Recent discussions have touched on the notion of 'absolute victory,' a term that seems almost archaic, reminiscent of the Six-Day War some six decades ago—a landmark in military strategy that continues to be a subject of study worldwide. The decisive Operation Focus, which saw a surprise air strike decimating the majority of Egypt, Syria, and Jordan's combat aircraft on the war's first day, is a testament to the power of bold leadership and strategic foresight.
This victory was the product of the visionary planning by Israeli Air Force Commander Ezer Weizman, the impeccable execution by General Motti Hod, the supportive oversight by Chief of Staff Yitzhak Rabin, and the courageous approval by Prime Minister Levi Eshkol. Such leadership dared to make a pivotal, risky choice, securing a deterrent triumph.
Yet, today's leadership appears hesitant, particularly in formulating a decisive strategy against Hezbollah. A third Lebanon war, if it comes to pass, must be swift, devastating, and conclusive, leveraging the element of surprise to underscore Israel's military prowess unequivocally. It must be remembered as the last Lebanon war.
Operation Focus 2024 should envision a massive, surprise assault on Lebanon's state infrastructure together with Hezbollah's military infrastructure. Without delving into specifics, the operation should aim to incapacitate Hezbollah's civilian and military capabilities comprehensively, including electricity, telecommunications, and water systems, as well as missile arsenals, launch sites, and command and control centers.
The stark reality post-October 7 underscores a chilling binary: it's either us or them. The persistent violations of Resolution 1701 and the explicit threats against Israel's existence reveal an adversary with whom negotiation or agreement is futile.
Five key considerations underscore the urgency of a proactive, strategic military and political stance:
- Preemption vs. Reaction: Failing to act leaves us vulnerable to surprise attacks that could wreak havoc on our infrastructure and disrupt our society, especially when least expected. Initiating action would afford us a critical advantage.
- Persistent conflict since October 8: With daily assaults on settlements and bases, the North has descended into war, displacing approximately 100,000 residents, and rendering the term 'low-intensity conflict' obsolete.
- Economic and Social Fallout: The conflict's toll on our economy and daily life in the North is escalating, casting the inevitability of escalation from a matter of 'if' to 'when.'
- US-Israel relations: "Biden won't allow us to attack," "We need more munitions." While concerns about US approval and armament supply persist, true leadership transcends excuses. As someone who grew up and was educated in the US, I know that Americans (and most of the world for that matter) respect bold, principles-based leadership. An assertive move in the North, despite unavoidable international scrutiny and initial American dissatisfaction with the timing, will ultimately garner support absolute support. The administration understands regional dynamics and is committed to countering Iran's influence. While we may differ on the tactics and timing, the US will have our back.
- A clear stand against Iran: With Iran edging closer to nuclear capability, targeting its primary proxy in Lebanon aligns with American interests. Despite the politicking of an election year, Israel must prioritize its sovereignty and regional deterrence.
The Israeli populace is acutely aware of the grave costs of a full-scale northern conflict but also recognizes the strategic benefit of preemptive action to mitigate damage. Over five months of inaction due to indecision and fear is unacceptable. An Israeli offensive is not only dictated by circumstance but also crucial in conveying a resolute message to our adversaries, surpassing any political calculus.
Israeli citizens have awoke to the new reality; now, it is up to our decision-makers to act decisively.
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