One of the most peculiar things about the recent Sudanese conflict is the blame game being played by many, with accusations being hurled at "external players." Some point fingers at the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, while others at Western nations and the Russian-backed Wagner Group. Still, some blame Israel and other regional entities for stoking the flames of conflict in Sudan.
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Each party justifies its claims by reiterating that regional or global powers have a vested interest in Sudan and that they back the Sudanese army or Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to achieve their objectives. However, it's evident that many parties have interests in specific countries, be it due to their location, natural resources, or geopolitical influence.
Volker Perthes, the head of the UN mission in Sudan, has officially stated that there's no tangible evidence of external meddling in the Sudanese conflict and that what's happening is merely a struggle for power among military factions, not a conflict between the military and civilians. However, media reports and social media paint a different picture, indicating that there's no "concrete" intervention in this conflict, implying that there's no military support being provided to one side over the other. This point is critical since it can't be denied that external parties may have some bias towards one of the military groups in Sudan. The RSF is nothing like ISIS Al-Qaida. Their leader has been an active figure in Sudanese politics and the military for years and has been openly engaged with regional and international actors, building connections under the official oversight of Sudanese institutions. Therefore, it's unreasonable to accuse any party of colluding with the army or with those whom the army alleges are plotting a coup against it.
The issue at hand is not about defending or justifying external ties with any of the factions, be it Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo ("Hamidati") or Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan. It's evident that regional and international actors are keen on safeguarding their strategic interests in Sudan or any other nation across the globe. However, it's the responsibility of the citizens and active entities within any country to protect their homeland against any external intervention that could undermine their interests. The challenge, nonetheless, lies in building national consensus and forging robust partnerships that are founded on national principles, and persuading all factions within the country to find common ground.
It's noteworthy that all regional and international players have been intensively working towards securing a temporary humanitarian ceasefire for a brief period over the past few days, not necessarily to end the conflict. Yet, everyone has seen how these ceasefires crumble as soon as they're declared, with both sides trading accusations of shelling and firing, demonstrating their parochial lack of concern for the welfare of the people they claim to be fighting for, including access to food and water, security, and stability.
It is inconceivable that a regional player like Egypt, for instance, could turn a blind eye to the ongoing situation in its southern neighbor, given the shared geography and geopolitics. Moreover, the Nile River serves as a vital link between the two countries, implying that any turmoil in Sudan could threaten Egypt's water security and lead to a refugee crisis, among other consequences.
The same holds for other regional actors, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, who contend with the influence of rival powers in the Arab world, including Sudan. In addition, some GCC nations have sizeable investments in Sudan, and safeguarding these investments and promoting stability in the country aligns with their strategic interests. It is imperative to prevent Sudan from becoming another failed Arab state engulfed in turmoil and violence, particularly as the region is already grappling with numerous crises.
The impact of the Sudanese conflict goes beyond its borders, as it affects neighboring countries with their own security and economic challenges. Sudan's large size and its proximity to other African nations make it a regional player, and any issues it faces will have ripple effects across the continent.
Moreover, with the prevalence of terrorism, weapons trafficking, and internal conflicts in the neighboring countries, these issues also become intertwined with Sudan's situation. These issues are especially relevant as Africa continues to grapple with questions about governance systems and the choice between democracy and dictatorship, recognizing that each country has its own unique cultural, ethnic, historical, and civilizational complexities that require careful consideration and preparation before any calls for transition to democracy.
The situation in Sudan is mainly a matter of internal responsibility. The crisis is particularly concerning because it is occurring between military personnel and not involving civilians, and both sides are well-aware of each other's secrets, alliances, internal and external networks, capabilities, deployment areas, and spread.
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