On the night of Feb. 15, 30 years ago, then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir was awakened by the news that "operational availability" had been created to take out Hezbollah Secretary-General Abbas al-Musawi in his car in southern Lebanon from the air. The prime minister did not hesitate much before authorizing the move.
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Yet the official who woke Shamir from his sleep that night inadvertently omitted two vital points: He failed to note that the assassination had the potential to provoke a difficult response from Hezbollah. Such a response ultimately came in the form of attacks on the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires and later the city's Jewish community building that killed dozens of people and wounded hundreds more. The second point, which was not made then and was apparently not taken into appropriate consideration, was that the targeted killing of al-Musawi less than one year after he entered the position was likely to see a far more dangerous, sophisticated, and charismatic figure take his place.
Hassan Nasrallah, the son of a Shiite grocery store owner in southern Beirut, had been interested in religious teaching as a child. He was fascinated by the Shiite leader in Lebanon, Musa Sadr, and studied religion in Iraq and Iran. Yet he was never recognized as a spiritual authority. In interviews, he would relate the story of how as a child, a stranger once entered his father's store, took a long, hard look at Nasrallah, and told his father: "Your son is destined for greatness."
Nasrallah was just 32 years old when he was appointed al-Musawi's successor. Over the years, he led a series of deadly attacks on Israeli forces in southern Lebanon that ultimately forced the Israel Defense Forces to retreat in 2000.
The vast military strength he acquired thanks to weapons deliveries from Iran and the glory he had obtained left him drunk on power. This is what gave him the courage to kidnap IDF soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev in the summer of 2006 in a move that would lead to the Second Lebanon War.
It was during the war that Hezbollah learned that, in contrast to his claims, Israel was not, in fact, "weaker than a spider's web." Nasrallah would later publicly admit that had he known how the Israelis would respond, he would not have started the war. Ever since 2006, he has been hiding in a bunker, fearing he will meet the same fate as his predecessor. He has taken care to order "proportional responses" to hits from Israel so as not to drag Lebanon into an all-out war the likes of which it will not recover from.
Nasrallah has exercised this same restraint in the domestic Lebanese arena. Had he wanted to, he could have taken control of the government in Beirut. The Hezbollah leader, however, prefers to be a strong force behind the scenes and leave the impossible job of running a multiethnic state now facing the worst economic crisis in its history to others.
With 30 years of experience in the position, can Israel trust the Hezbollah leader to demonstrate the same level of restraint should we be forced to attack Iran's nuclear facilities? I wouldn't count on it. Tehran established Hezbollah and armed it with 150,000 missiles to serve as a forward defensive position for Iran and the spearhead of anti-Israel operations when necessary. He is aware that obedience to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is mandatory, even if that means wreaking havoc and destruction on Lebanon.
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