There are stark differences in demographic trends for the world's two major Jewish population centers, the United States and Israel. Recent data indicate upcoming challenges for the United States, including significant shifts for its Jewish population. Israel, with its growing Jewish population, is also facing challenges.
If trends continue, in 20 years the majority of the world's Jews will be living in Israel. The United States will see a continuing decline in overall numbers, with a growing observant Jewish population based in larger communities. That said, a major flaw in demographic projections is their failure to account for the impact of individuals on the course of history.
First, though, let's start with the trends.
The overall U.S. fertility rate has been on a downward slide for some time, and according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now stands at 1.7 births per woman, which is obviously below what is needed for replacement. 2018 showed the lowest birth rate in the United States in over three decades.
Replacement is important for family and religious reasons, but also for economic reasons, particularly for the nation as a whole, if for no other reason than to provide a tax base to support an aging population. Also, according to a recent March of Dimes study, last year, 43% of new births in the United States were to mothers receiving Medicaid assistance, many of whom are single mothers. Barring a dramatic change in birth rates or immigration, the overall U.S. population in 20 years will be smaller and potentially poorer.
There are an estimated 5.7 million Jews living in the United States, the majority of whom are unaffiliated or in the non-Orthodox movements. The fertility rate for non-Orthodox Jews is estimated to be even lower than that of the general U.S. population, and the intermarriage rate has been measured to be as low as 44% and as high as 72% (with only a small percentage of intermarried families observing Jewish traditions).
Nevertheless, the birth rate among the U.S. Orthodox population is over four children per couple. A recent Pew study notes that the Orthodox population is also much younger. In the older generation, only 5% are Orthodox. In the current "parent" generation, 15% are Orthodox and in the "child" generation, 27% are being raised in Orthodox homes.
If trends continue, the overall number of Jews in the United States will decline over the next two decades, and then begin to rise in the following decades due to higher birth rates among the more observant families. In perhaps 50 years, if trends continue, the United States will be home to the same number of Jews as today, but those Jews will be more observant and congregated in larger communities.
In Israel, The Ettinger Report recently showed the Jewish population hovering around 7 million. According to the latest report from Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics, Jewish Israeli birth rates are increasing in both the Sephardi and Ashkenazi non-haredi sectors. (The birth rate in the haredi sector is decreasing but still at 6.7 per couple.) Overall Jewish fertility rates are 3.1 births per woman and climbing.
Today, slightly over half of Israeli Jews are non-Ashkenazim – Mizrahim, Sephardim and others. In 20 years, through intermarriage, such distinctions will be more difficult to determine and track.
In addition, the Jewish Agency for Israel reported that almost 30,000 Jews from across the globe made aliyah last year, up 5% from the previous year. While many of them are Jews from Russia, Ukraine and France, Jews have been returning from over 100 countries, speaking 80 different languages.
According to The Ettinger Report, if Judea and Samaria were to be annexed to Israel, Arabs would comprise one-third of the total Israeli population, but the report also noted significant out-migration and a declining Arab-sector birth rate (although the birth rate is still around 3 children per couple). The report notes significant issues with overcounting and double-counting in the Arab sector.
The challenge with any type of population prediction, however, is accounting for the impact of individuals. A study of the Jewish population in 1875 would have shown 10 million Jews worldwide, the majority, perhaps three-fourths, in Eastern Europe and the rest in Middle East, North Africa, the Americas, and elsewhere.
Who would have predicted the impact of Lenin or Stalin or the rise of Hitler? Conversely, who would have predicted the impact of a newspaper reporter named Theodor Herzl?
Did anyone in 1950 predict the impact of the Lubavitcher rebbe, Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson, and other major rabbinic outreach efforts in bringing unaffiliated Jews back into the fold? (In Israel alone, there are an estimated 300,000 Jews who have returned to some form of Jewish observance.)
Did anyone foresee the return of millions of Jews from Arab lands to Israel?
How about the rise of the ayatollahs in Iran and the exodus of Persian Jews, many of whom trace their roots to the time of Mordechai and Esther? Did anyone foresee a Hollywood actor becoming a U.S. president and successfully challenging the Soviet communist empire, which ultimately brought some 1 million Russian Jews back to Israel? Who could have predicted the impact of Pastor John Hagee in America, and his inspiration to millions of Christians across the world to support Israel and for Jews returning to Israel?
How heavenly forces are interacting with these efforts to steer our people back to Israel is unclear but that these and many other individuals have altered the Jewish demographic path is undeniable.
In 20 years, projections based on current population growth rates show the Jewish population in Israel approaching 9 million and in the United States dropping below 5 million. Will government and spiritual leaders impact the overall U.S. fertility rate? Will anti-Semitic leaders in the United States, Canada and the U.K. cause aliyah to increase significantly from these traditional safe havens? Will sympathetic U.S. leaders, organizations and the forces they inspire continue to protect Jews and continue to be effective in supporting Israel?
No one can predict how the next two decades will unfold for the U.S., Israel and the Jewish people, but the continuation of the "ingathering" in the Promised Land seems likely to continue unabated. We can only hope and pray that this ingathering will unfold as peacefully as possible.
This article is reprinted with permission from JNS.org.
