After Israel finishes operations in Gaza and neutralizes (diplomatically or militarily) Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, a strategic partnership with the strategically important Kingdom of Saudi Arabia would be possible.
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Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, are quietly hoping Israel defeats Hamas – Islamist movements threaten their rule as well.
The key question is: what kind of relations would follow?
Will it follow the "warm peace" first tried with Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries and later the United Arab Emirates and Morocco - a paradigm of cooperative, open, and friendly relations -- or more of a "cold peace" like that between Israel and Jordan and Egypt?
Jordanians and Egyptians and their media are often virally anti-Semitic and anti-Israeli. Realpolitik and skepticism towards Islamist-infused populism keep their state apparatuses at peace with Israel. Nevertheless, Arab nationalists and the Muslim Brotherhood still propagate hatred towards Israel.
Cooperation between Islamic States and Israel need not be confined to begrudging acceptance. Co-existence and genuine tolerance can be found in Kazakhstan, Morrocco, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and elsewhere.
Kazakhstan's nomadic and Soviet pasts have made it naturally less religious than other Islamic states. When independence arrived, its founding President, Nursultan Nazarbayev, worked to turn Kazakhstan into a "steppe Switzerland" through investment and diplomatic outreach.
To this end, Nazarbayev established the Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions. It is held in Astana, Kazakhstan, every three years and began in 2003. Kazakhstan also allows freedom of worship to its small yet thriving Jewish community led by Chief Rabbi Yeshaya E. Cohen. It is even a place of pilgrimage to visit the grave of Rabbi Levi Yitzchak Schneerson.
The Muslim countries of Uzbekistan and Morocco have strong tourist industries and are business magnets. Morocco's tradition of religious tolerance is historically linked to the ruling monarchy, which claims its origins date back to the prophet Muhammad. Azerbaijan has long cooperated with Israel, especially against Iran.
Saudi-Israeli cooperation is set to be a mix of both paradigms. On one hand, Salafi-dominated Saudi Arabia is unlikely to follow the patterns established by Morocco or Kazakhstan. However, Saudi Arabia has more reasons to offer good-faith cooperation.
The state-controlled media in Saudi Arabia portray Israel in a more positive light after peace negotiations began in order to justify the government's normalization in what could be a hostile reaction from some of the public. Paradoxically, Saudi Arabia's greater fear of a religious public may make genuine cooperation more likely.
Before the Gaza war broke out, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said he was optimistic that a deal could be reached by early 2024. Salman agreed, saying normalization with Israel is getting "closer."
Nevertheless, the relationship between the two is at its core transactional, directed at deterring Iran.
The UAE, which normalized relations with Israel in 2020, provides hints at the future of Saudi-Israeli relations. Its observant, conservative Muslim society is tolerant of tourists who do not always share their social mores. Its diplomatic flexibility can be seen with the Abraham Accords, the I2U2 Group (India, Israel, the UAE, and the US), and collaboration with the US against Iran.
Normalization prompted the UAE to construct a new landmark promoting religious tolerance: the Abrahamic Family House. It contains a mosque, a church, and a synagogue.
One hopes that Riyadh will follow the paths blazed by the UAE, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan concerning relations with Israel. The shared commonality may be maintaining strong US ties.
Despite a complex diplomatic dance with Russia and China, Saudi Arabia, like other moderate Muslim states, seeks a strong US connection. It will continue leveraging its ties with the US to counter geopolitical threats at home and along its borders.
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