If Russia were to initiate a war in the near future, the US and European states would not be able to deny they were responsible for it breaking out in the first place. The US, which has made three serious political mistakes since successfully defeating communism without having to fight a war, deserves the most blame.
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The first mistake was avoiding adopting a Marshall Plan for Russia, even though that country needed one more than Germany. Unlike Germany, Russia has no democratic-capitalist traditions. The International Monetary Fund's demand Russia operate according to the usual standards once communism fell played a central role in the oligarch takeover of national assets and its transformation into a faltering capitalist democracy.
The second mistake was kicking Russia out of the Group of Eight nations in 2018. Regardless of whether or not Russia a faltering, and perhaps even failed, democracy, it is nevertheless a world power: Its territory is twice the size of the United States; it has unparalleled mineral reserves; and unlike Western democracies, which in the spirit of "cancel culture" erase their past and national identity, Russians are proud of their identity and their national enlistment to destroy the Nazis and would be willing to enlist toward such an effort now.
The third and most significant mistake was when the US refrained from dismantling the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which was established to contend with the ideology threatening the West that held that communism's success was contingent on the worldwide adoption of communism. Following the collapse of communism, and given the current threats, it would have been fitting to replace NATO – which was aimed at protecting Europe from a threat that has since passed – with a new defensive framework to protect the West in its entirety, including Russia, which is its flesh and blood.
Following communism's collapse, the conflict of interests between Russia and the West are largely economical and not ideological as in the past. Unlike ideological conflicts of interest, economic conflicts of interest can and must be settled through diplomatic negotiations.
Russia is the only Western state to border two new threats: Iran and Chinese nationalism. That is why it serves as the first line of defense against them. For this reason, a Russia that is strong militarily, economically, socially, and politically is capable of fulfilling its role of defending the West, which is the West's primary interest. The Nazis and communism were defeated by US-led efforts. As a result, Washington should have ensured it could successfully fulfill this role. By pushing Russia away, the West is forcing Moscow into the arms of its enemies, who are more than happy to oblige as doing so means moving the front lines from the heart of Asia to the heart of Europe.
In statesmanship, there are diplomatic breakthroughs and there is doubling down. NATO's perpetuation is an example of doubling down on a path that is no longer necessary. Like the late US President Harry Truman, Joe Biden seems to be the bureaucratic, doubling down type. He could nevertheless go down in history as a great US president if he prevents the unnecessary war that is about to break out by immediately announcing his intention of replacing NATO with a new organization whose goals and structures would be developed with Russia's cooperation once tensions have calmed.
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