US President Donald Trump's Middle East peace plan is very much Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's peace plan – that much is clear to anyone who has been following Netanyahu's long-game-style policies since 1996.
Trump, on the other hand, may have been convinced to roll back his endorsement of the plan to extend Israeli sovereignty to about 30% Judea and Samaria and the Jordan Valley, detailed in his administration's vision for regional peace.
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The American president seems to have conditioned his endorsement on the support of Blue and White leader Defense Minister Benny Gantz and his second in the party, Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi. The problem is that these two former IDF chiefs of staff, who hold conservative views on issues of defense and security, will never support the sovereignty bid.
What will Netanyahu do next? Does this mean that the sovereignty plan will meet the same fate as Israel's decade-old plan to strike Iran's nuclear facilities and be left to collect dust on a shelf in some archive?
Back then, Netanyahu tried to circumvent the problem by targeting the policies of US President Barack Obama, a behind-the-scenes ally of Iran. He did so with his famous address to Congress, which at the time seemed like an act of desperation in the wake of the Obama-Iran alliance. Now we know the battle with Iran is far from over.
Netanyahu had presumed that the Oslo Accords were merely a stage in the Palestinian plan to destabilize Israel through immigration and terrorism. He was proven right but as he cannot revoke the accords, he has been focused on waging a campaign meant to expose the Palestinian Authority's destructive strategy.
The main avenue here was presenting the Palestinians with a demand that they recognize the Jewish people's right to self-determination and its fulfillment in Israel. This demand was presented alongside Netanyahu's belated consent in 2009 to the establishment of a Palestinian state of limited sovereignty.
This campaign is not over. It almost failed after Netanyahu's defeats in the 1999 and 2006 elections. It would have failed back then has the Palestinians not refused the generous peace proposals put forward by Prime Minister Ehud Barak, US President Bill Clinton, PM Ehud Olmert, and Obama.
This, of course, was not merely a coincidence, as the PA has consistently refused any offer that would undermine their nefarious strategy. One must remember that the Palestinians are not interested in statehood for any other reason but to battle and destroy Israel. This is why they are insisting on the "right of return" and Arab immigration, and this is why they will not even entertain the idea of recognizing a Jewish nation-state.
Netanyahu understands that the answer lies in finding a consistent, strategic response that would eradicate the Palestinians' destructive aspirations.
Applying sovereignty in the Jordan Valley is a vital interest for Israel because it eliminates the main strategic means at the disposal of the Palestinian leadership: a tangible connection to the Arab world, which has a huge demographic advantage over Israel.
The post-Arab Spring disintegration of the regimes across the Middle East only exacerbates the threat Israel faces and the need to ward it off by extending sovereignty to the Jordan Valley. It must be noted that such a move on Israel's part does not preclude the possibility of Palestinian self-determination, because the number of Palestinian residents in the Jordan Valley is negligible.
Extending sovereignty to the Jordan Valley is vital. Once applied, repealing it would require a special, 80-MK majority or a referendum, and the "international community" – a phrase that has come to strike fear in the hearts of Israeli politicians – would find it difficult to force Israel to walk it back.
In any case, regardless of whether Trump endorses the move, applying sovereignty to the Jordan Valley would require a prolonged diplomatic campaign and it will come with a price. Nevertheless, this is an essential move for Israel security-wise and it is equally essential in terms of promoting peace with the Arab world, including the Palestinians, who would have to come to terms with the existence of the Jewish state in "their sphere."
Can Netanyahu complete this extended move with a historic accomplishment, overcoming the opposition expressed by Blue and White, or will he cower before the "international community"? Even if he does, a future Israeli leadership must find the courage to complete the move and apply sovereignty to the eastern front that is so vital to Israel's security, even if any such a move would exact a substantial price from Israel.
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