Israel is bracing for an overall security escalation in the Palestinian area, both in Judea and Samaria and the Gaza Strip.
Military deployment near the southern border and across Judea and Samaria has been increased and may be increased further ahead of the coming holiday season. This was ordered despite the fact there is no concrete intelligence indicating the larger terrorist organization in Gaza are planning to escalate the situation. In fact, the only common denominator between the recent terrorist attacks is that anxiety they sparked in Israel.
The problem is that events of this nature have their own dynamic and they could easily spiral out of control.
Two terrorist attacks in Judea and Samaria and east Jerusalem in the span of 48 hours could very well herald a new wave of terrorism, where lone-wolf terrorist once again try to resolve personal issues via mayhem and murder. This requires different intelligence and operational contingencies on Israel's part that, even if they cannot eradicate terrorism, will reduce the threat to civilians.
The threat of escalation is also palpable on the Israel-Gaza Strip border.
Despite media reports to the contrary, Hamas has a strategic interest in avoiding an escalation at this time, as it prefers to focus on the Palestinian reconciliation process. However, given the failed assassination attempt against Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah during his visit to the coastal enclave last week and the sanctions Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is expected to impose on Hamas in retaliation, as well as other local events Gaza's rules may have no control over, the Islamist terrorist group could easily be backed into a corner.
Hamas' dilemma is illustrated, for example, by it approach to the mass march planned for Land Day on March 30, which this year coincides with the eve of Passover. While Hamas would prefer to avoid clashes with Israeli security forces, it has still called on Gaza's residents to do so.
This could create a particularly combustible situation, in which the IDF will have to exercise a prudent mix of brain and brawn: Force will have to be used to prevent harm to IDF troops and Israeli sovereignty but it will have to be used intelligently to avoid any unnecessary harm to Palestinian civilians, as that could ignite the situation on the ground.
In the meantime, as preparation for a potential conflict that neither side desires, Israel continues to undermine Hamas' underground assets.
The recent destruction of several terror tunnels in the Gaza Strip proves that the intelligence-technological-operational effort to neutralize the threat posed by Hamas' grid of terror tunnels is becoming increasingly successful.
While there is no magical formula that can make this issue disappear in one fell swoop, the series of successful tunnel interceptions indicates there is a good chance that the IDF can rise to the challenge set by IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot, namely to eradicate the tunnel threat by the end of 2018.
The dilemma Hamas faces at this time is whether or not to use existing tunnels to carry out terrorist attacks before they are exposed and destroyed. This dilemma is likely to intensify should the situation in Judea and Samaria and on the Israel-Gaza Strip border continue to escalate, and doubly so if any mass-casualty event takes place – on either side.
Israel, for its part, should spare no effort to avoid this situation. Ahead of the country's 70th Independence Day, there is no reason to gift Hamas with a security escalation.
