Despite the fog of uncertainty encompassing the fate of the renewed talks between world powers and Iran in Vienna, the intentions of the White House are abundantly clear. All signs point to US President Joe Biden's administration, which is informally involved in the talks, being determined to conclude this current round of talks with an agreement with Iran even if the essence of such an accord is entirely different in its essence from the ambitious goal delineated by "all the president's men" immediately after the 46th president's entered the Oval Office.
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Indeed, within the first year of his term in office, the initial framework for a "comprehensive framework" with Iran has faded into oblivion. That framework was aimed at not only closing the loopholes in the original 2015 accord but also dealing with additional layers of Iran's modus operandi, including regional subversion – which has reached new, violent heights with Houthi missile attacks on the UAE – and its ballistic missile program.
The original plan has since been replaced by a watered-down version that is based upon the framework of the 2015 agreement, with all its weaknesses and risks that have grown over the last year. Iran's increased uranium enrichment has taken Tehran to the point where it is able to realize its nuclear dream.
Washington last week decided to roll back some of the sanctions on Iran's civilian nuclear industry imposed under former US President Donald Trump in 2020. It has also attempted to ease Israel's concerns over the deal, bolstering strategic ties with Jerusalem and giving a veritable "green light" to Israel to exercise independent discretion in how it responds to an immediate and tangible threat. These are just two of the signs Biden aspires to reach a deal as soon as possible and at any price. This is despite the fact that nothing has changed as far as Iran's uncompromising stance is concerned. What other explanation could there be for the US administration's decision to grant the ayatollah regime such a generous advance in the form of the partial rollback of sanctions without anything tangible in return? Washington is clearly looking to prove, through actions and not just words, its goodwill as well as to establish "favorable conditions" with the Revolutionary Guards.
Given its weak position in the international arena, which was so perfectly expressed by the startled retreat from Afghanistan, it is Biden's assessment that a deal will earn him points and create stability in the region.
America's naïve approach today has its roots in the policies of the late US President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who believed to his dying day that unilateral gestures toward Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin would result in a corresponding response and lay the foundation for the establishment of a new world order.
Yet even if Israel abstains from taking any action against the plan in progress, Republicans in the Senate, who are currently in the minority, may thwart Biden's plans. They do not intend to let the second "Vienna accords" move forward and will seek to limit the administration's ability to make progress on the matter.
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