The presence of US military forces remains a highly contentious issue within Iraq. After nearly two years of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani endorsing the continued presence of American forces in the country, despite the Iraqi parliament's earlier decision to demand their withdrawal, there appears to be a shift in the official Iraqi stance on this issue.
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Yahya Rasoul, the spokesperson for the commander-in-chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces, announced that his country's delegation, which recently visited Washington, presented its perspective, stating that there is no longer a necessity for combat forces on Iraqi soil.
The Iraqi military delegation, led by Defense Minister Thabit Mohammed Al-Abbasi, visited the US in response to an invitation from the US secretary of defense. According to the official statement, the delegation discussed the "future relationship between Iraq and the global coalition against Terrorism." They also reiterated Iraq's principles regarding its sovereignty, the expansion of its armed forces, and their role in safeguarding security, stability, and the country's borders.
In recent years, the American stance on military presence in Iraq has been grounded in the Iraqi government's invitation, with the aim of playing a supportive role in counterterrorism efforts. This role primarily involves offering security advice and training to Iraqi forces. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stated in March of the previous year that Iraq is committed to protecting coalition forces from any external threats.
Over time, this arrangement has become burdensome for Iraq. It not only faces continuous public opposition to the American military presence, particularly from Shiite factions and movements but also contends with the fact that this presence provides Iran with a pretext to interfere in Iraq's internal affairs and periodically target the bases hosting US forces.
The US, which once had approximately 130,000 soldiers during the invasion period, currently maintains roughly 2,500 troops in Iraq and an additional 900 in Syria. Their primary mission is to provide assistance in the fight against ISIS.
During a speech at the Munich Security Conference in mid-February of the previous year, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani said that his country no longer requires combat forces from the international coalition. Instead, Iraq seeks advisers for security consultations and guidance purposes. He added that ISIS currently has no presence in Iraq, and the organization has been effectively defeated both militarily and in terms of its operational capabilities within the country.
Is the Iraqi Prime Minister, once a staunch supporter of an ongoing American military presence, contemplating a shift that would reduce the American role to a symbolic number of military advisers? The answer lies in the numerous changes that have unfolded over the past two years.
Iraq is progressing toward enhanced security and stability, and the current Prime Minister is actively working to establish multiple agreements that distance Iraq from regional and international conflicts. Central to these developments is the complex dynamic between Iran and the US, which frequently exerts a significant influence on Iraq, sometimes turning it into a battleground for settling scores, particularly from the American perspective in relation to Iran.
Amidst the intricate internal dynamics in Iraq regarding the presence of American forces, particularly concerning Iran-aligned factions, and the continual Iranian pressures on successive Iraqi governments on this issue, especially since the killing of General Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force in a US strike in Baghdad, it is worth noting that American forces in Iraq are not stationed in their own bases. Instead, they are dispersed within Iraqi military facilities, estimated to range between 12 and 14 bases, as per certain media reports. They are present under an official agreement signed with the Iraqi government.
The shift in the Iraqi stance primarily stems from the assertion that ISIS no longer has a foothold in the country. This follows statements by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, reported by the Wall Street Journal on January 15, 2023, in which he affirms that the presence of foreign forces in his country remains necessary as time is still needed to fully eliminate ISIS.
Since assuming office last October, Al-Sudani has been open about his aspiration for Iraq's relationship with the US to mirror the ties enjoyed by Saudi Arabia and other petroleum-producing Gulf nations. He further said that Iraq can maintain positive relations with both Iran and the US, signaling his intention to distance Iraq from regional and international rivalries. His goal is to revamp Iraq's alliances in a manner that curtails pretexts for external interference in its affairs and mitigates intermittent political tensions. Certain factions exploit the issue of the American military presence in the country as a rallying point to sow discord and create problems in the domestic political landscape.
Al-Sudani, who previously characterized American forces as "friendly," is likely maintaining his stance on Iraq's relations with Washington. Nevertheless, his overarching objective is to strategically reposition Iraq, restoring its equilibrium and ensuring complete security and stability.
This aspiration follows Al-Sudani's numerous diplomatic achievements on a regional level and his ongoing efforts to cultivate balanced external relationships for Iraq with all regional and global powers. He seeks to place Iraq back on the region's political and diplomatic map, positioning it as a hub for contact and communication with all parties. He also wants a neutral Iraq, distanced from all geopolitical conflicts, all while embracing mediation and reconciliation roles that allow Baghdad to reclaim some of its weight and strategic significance.
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