The daring American military operation in northern Syria that ended in the death of Islamic State leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi was a significant step by the Biden administration in the Middle East, particularly at a time when its policies in the region are perceived as hesitant and unpretentious. And yet, the importance of the raid needs to be measured by the amount of influence it has on the other players in the Middle East, not just by the amount of damage to ISIS.
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The direct and immediate impact of the operation will be felt by ISIS. Removing an experienced "commander" who rose through the organization alongside its founding generation, is a blow to any terrorist network, especially one still struggling to recuperate from the defeat it suffered in 2019. It's safe to assume Qurayshi's demise will affect, at least for a while, the organization's operational capabilities. Its operational routine will be disrupted. Its leaders will have to invest more energy in evasion and survival, and additionally, will have to exhaust time and resources to find and fix the "security breach" that led to Qurayshi's death.
Similar to previous instances, the process of replacing the group's leadership will likely entail friction and power struggles, which may also exacerbate the organization's fragile stability. Above all else, the sense of humiliation and the blow to the group's image and morale will loom like a dark cloud. It's hard to overstate the importance of the perceptual impact when it comes to organizations that derive their strength from religious inspiration and a profound sense of duty to "restore past glories" (as per the ISIS anthem). The accumulative effect of these factors will be measured by how long it takes ISIS to recover from this setback, the quality of its operations, and how well it functions.
As stated, the direct impact of the American raid will be felt by ISIS. However, the benefit the US can derive from this operation extends beyond ISIS – it could also affect the Iran issue as well as influence other players in the region. The potential benefit in this regard is tremendous.
With this operation, the Biden administration can now rebuff those criticizing it of apathy toward developments in the Middle East. At the expense of ISIS, the administration can deliver the message, "We're here," and moreover, that the United States of America is capable of allocating sufficient attention to the Middle East, even when it's busy with other regional crises across the globe.
This operation affords the Biden administration the opportunity to show it can bring down the "military hammer" when it decides to, and that the tool of "targeted assassination" – and in a broader sense "special operations" – are still readily available in the tool kit at its disposal.
Additionally, this operation can illustrate that when it comes to the Biden administration's commitments, such as preventing an Islamic State resurgence, it won't hesitate to carry out even the most dangerous of missions.
These messages are relevant to Iran and its proxies and are important to America's allies in the Middle East. However, if the administration opts to view this operation strictly as an isolated event limited only to ISIS, and doesn't seek to maximize its dividends and impact in other areas, then everything it will have gained against ISIS will be lost against Iran. In such a scenario, the US could be perceived as afraid of a clash with Iran, which will embolden it to harden its stance on the nuclear issue and other regional matters. The way to avoid this is to show that the operation was the start of a new line, one that will continue to be drawn with additional measures: diplomatic, economic, and, if need be – military.
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