President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are eager to have a Saudi-Israeli peace deal signed before each country holds elections. Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman shares such a vision.
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But the current government won't get a ceremony on the White House lawn; Riyadh has already made it clear that this won't happen so long as Netanyahu is in power. Or to put it less diplomatically: Saudi Arabia will not be a prospective candidate for peace so long as toxic politicians such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir are in the cabinet.
Netanyahu has empowered Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer to talk about this in his media interviews from which it appears he was counting his chickens before they hatched. In fact, even before there were any eggs, to begin with.
In a marketing move aimed at setting optimism in Israel, Netanyahu's inner circle has been saying that in return for the American arms and capabilities given to Saudi Arabia under such a deal, Israel would consider asking for a defense treaty with the US. But this is for the time being just talk that is nothing more than political campaigning aimed at hiding the fact that Netanyahu is walking back his objection to Saudi Arabia having a nuclear reactor on its soil.
Israel has always been the bride-in-waiting, with the groom – a much-coveted defense pact – never showing up. To save face, the bride has always claimed that she does not seek such a deal. The proof that Israel does in fact want such a deal is found in a much-forgotten episode: David Ben-Gurion sought to have Israel join NATO, but was rebuffed. He even considered sending IDF troops to fight in the Korean War in the 1950s.
After the Six-Day War, Richard Nixon's confidant Leonard Garment arrived in Israel. Then-Defense Minister Moshe Dayan told him in Hebrew (with Abba Eben translating to English), that Israel only seeks to have US weapon systems so that it could defend itself on its own. "We don't want a single US soldier to shed blood for our defense," they told him, both knowing that there was zero chance of a defense treaty passing the Senate in light of the ongoing upheaval over the Vietnam War.
A defense pact that would shore up Israel's deterrence and stature abroad will not be finalized this time around as well. Dermer is trying to sell goods that are not in his possession, because the minimum demands set by the US for a Saudi normalization pact is having Israel commit to forgo settlement construction beyond four blocs, effectively abandoning Smotrich's megalomanic expansionist vision, along with an Israeli commitment not to annex Area C. It will also insist that Israel grant many benefits to the Palestinians and restrain the IDF's conduct in counterterrorism raids.
Even if all those obstacles were to be overcome, a Saudi deal would not result in a US-Israel defense pact, because the only thing Israel would commit to is not to use nuclear weapons, which the US is convinced Israel has. The US will demand that its commitment goes beyond that – that Israel will be allowed to fight terrorists but not launch any pre-emptive war like in 1967, however just it may be. Who is going to sign such a deal that would effectively have the US control anything that is produced in the Dimona reactor?
There is nothing wrong with dreaming about a defense treaty, but as scripture says, False dreams; they comfort in vain. With relations between Israel and the Democratic Party and the Biden administration at a low point, and in light of the ongoing hostility toward Israel, it would best to avoid pipe dreams and focus on preserving the current level of commitment by the US to Israel's security: keeping its qualitative edge; providing military aid for procurement of sophisticated weapon systems; and maintaining the implicit defense pact that already exists, according to the Economist.
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