Monday's statement by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Tehran could be "weeks away" from developing enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb, had one clear goal: to set the stage for a new nuclear deal with the Islamic republic.
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The novelty lies with Washington's desire to craft a "longer and stronger" deal, as he put it, but in fact, the message was a discreet admission by the Biden administration that the 2015 deal brokered by then-US President Barack Obama had failed.
The Biden administration's message was directed at two audiences: the first is America's European allies such as France and Britain, and the other signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, from which former President Donald Trump pulled in 2018; and the second is Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, which is already gearing up for a diplomatic standoff on the issue vis-à-vis US President Joe Biden
A glance at Biden's picks for top positions in his administration quickly reveals that most held senior positions in the Obama administration, giving a clear hint at so where the US is headed in terms of talks with the ayatollahs.
Israel, for its part, isn't wasting any time and is already preparing for a host of scenarios, including – as IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi stated last week – military contingencies.
There is no doubt that Tehran will see Biden's eagerness to re-enter the nuclear deal as a sign of weakness and it will try to extort the US accordingly. After all, Iran has the benefit of time: it can keep edging toward a bomb and if it can humiliate the "Great Satan" along the way – why not?
Having sustained several major blows this year, including elimination of Quds Force Commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani and a US drone strike in Iraq in January 2020 and the assassination of nuclear project chief Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in November, the ayatollahs are in no rush to trust the West.
Iran's leaders must also contend with domestic public opinion, rattled by the dire economic crisis and the coronavirus pandemic, which has hit the country particularly hard.
The Iranian Defense Ministry is posturing as usual. On Monday, it launched a new satellite-carrying rocket into space, alleging civilian research purposes – a familiar claim Iran asserts regarding its nuclear program.
Washington would be wise to act more discreetly so as not to repeat the mistakes made in the first agreement.
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