Negotiations to revive the nuclear deal are just a few meters away from the endgame and the announcement of the results. Either an agreement will be reached, the negotiations will be adjourned, or the negotiations will be declared a failure and the negotiating file will be closed, with all the consequences and strategic implications that entails.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
Iran grows bolder as the negotiations approach the final stretch. By way of the most recent example, the Iranian Foreign Ministry responded to a European trilateral statement calling Iranian demands "unconstructive" by indirectly threatening that "if this approach continues, the three countries [France, Britain, and Germany] should take responsibility and the consequences."
It should be noted that harsh Iranian language was used here, while the European statement merely expressed doubts about Iran's intentions and was characterized by sober and perfectly calm diplomatic tone, but did not contain any threats or insinuations of that kind.
There are several reasons behind this diplomatic harshness on Iran's part, chief among them being the realities of the international strategic environment. They have gone from facilitating negotiations, providing support, putting forward alternatives and proposals, and trying to use the whole situation to achieve common strategic interests with the US, to using Iran in the context of a strategic conflict that has been inflamed by the Ukraine crisis, US-China tensions over the position on Taiwan, and the US gross strategic mistake of opening this issue wide at a totally inopportune time.
All these circumstances and events are in Iran's interest. Add to this the urgent need for the Europeans to seek the lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil and accelerate its return to international markets, and there is no more ideal environment for Iran to negotiate than the current one. The question now on the minds of experts is what options Iran has in light of this new reality.
The answer is simple: Iran is in a position where it can take full advantage. It is using all of its negotiating experience, especially in the practice of brinkmanship, to achieve a strategic victory that could be historic and surpass the previous achievements of the 2015 agreement.
Another important point in answering this question is that Iran's calculus of gain and loss appears to be essentially the same in the two cases of reaching an agreement or declaring a failure and, to a lesser extent, postponing negotiations. Postponement carries more risks than the other two options.
Signing a new agreement offers many benefits to Iran, both economically and politically and in terms of security. It gives Iran another opportunity to continue its regional expansion plan and threaten its neighboring countries after making new progress in expanding its nuclear capabilities, both in knowledge and storage. Failure also is a loss to the US that far exceeds that of Iran.
Tehran is well aware that success or failure will not change the Biden administration's calculations about the prospects for US military action. Israel's assertion that it is not bound by any nuclear deal and has complete freedom of action to eliminate a possible Iranian nuclear threat is of paramount importance to Iran at this point in time. The cards of the game are now entirely in Iran's hands.
It is it that will determine the scene for the few remaining meters of the Vienna negotiation marathon. This results from a precise strategic calculation that does not take into account the status of the US side and its interests as a negotiating partner. Rather, Iran will be more inclined to choose a scenario that would put the White House in a critical corner both at home and abroad.
Failure of the nuclear talks is on the cards. Things now depend on how well the White House will accept the coercion exerted by the Iranian negotiator, since President Biden does not have much room to maneuver.
The midterm congressional elections are coming up in about two months, at a time when his country's strategic position is crumbling as it goes through an overt tussle with its biggest strategic rivals, China and Russia.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
