It remains unclear whether the crisis in Ukraine has come to an end. We can nevertheless predict its far-reaching repercussions. US President Joe Biden's administration represents a liberal worldview that advocates for democracy and diplomacy in conflict resolution. The US is tired of war and has largely refrained from threatening the use of power against Russia. Russian President Vladmir Putin, by contrast, will not hesitate to use military force to improve his country's security situation.
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Russia is scared of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's and the EU's approach toward its borders. It is concerned by the West's encouragement of color revolutions – political changes across the post-communist world – in Ukraine, Belarus, and Georgia.
The West's democratic crusade spooked Russia, which was not invited to join NATO and was not consulted on the fate of neighboring countries. Out of concern for its security, Russia has stationed many soldiers on the Ukrainian border, while issuing threats, to draw US attention to its demands. Indeed, the threatened use of force made the US finally engage in talks with Russia to clarify Moscow's security concerns.
As noted by the historian Thucydides, fear is a basic and powerful instinct and a cause of war. Human nature is also motivating Russia's leader, who is interested in broad security margins for his borders. The sequence of events is no surprise, especially after Russia swallowed the Crimean Peninsula and encouraged separatism in Eastern Ukraine.
Russian concerns are reasonable given past invasions from the West. Similar similarities sensitivities resulted in the Monroe Doctrine, which saw a military presence in the Western Hemisphere as a threat to the US.
The Ukraine crisis serves as a reminder of diplomacy's limitations. The US and its European allies encouraged Russia by going back on their commitment to require diplomacy and diplomacy only to resolve the crisis. But diplomacy that is not backed up by credible military ability is ineffective.
The crisis is the US's first international test since the withdrawal from Afghanistan. The US is in no rush to involve its military in the crisis and has thus far threatened economic sanctions. The world is observing Washington's conduct and sees a weak administration that confirms the decline of American power. The Americans could surprise and use force as they have in the past. This, however, appears highly unlikely, and the perception of reality dictates behavior.
The crisis is rattling Europe. Is the NATO alliance capable of deterring Russia, at a time when it remains uncertain whether the organization will survive the internal divisions over the crisis? Despite the talk of a "European military" and "strategic autonomy," Europe still needs an American security umbrella to deal more assertively with Russia, which is also its main energy provider.
The US conduct during the crisis also impacts the nuclear talks in Vienna. Tehran, which is already convinced the US is weak, can drag things out until they are offered the kind of deal they are interested in signing. Iran can sic its emissaries in the Middle East on US allies. Israel could reach the conclusion that it would be better off avoiding coordinating its policies with Washington before using force. In addition, a Russian victory in Europe could expedite flare-ups in the Middle East.
For Israel, there are other lessons to be learned. The situation in Ukraine proves once again the futility of Western guarantees. The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances signed by the Russian Federation, the UK, and the US in 1994 provided guarantees for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan in return for their renouncing nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, the memorandum was violated when Russia conquered Crimea in 2014, and it is now once again clear that such guarantees are invalid.
International institutions had similar failures. The US called for a meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss the stationing of Russian troops on Ukraine's borders even though it knew Russia had the power to veto the move. Discussions on the issue ended in vocal confrontations.
Despite the liberal dialogue in the West, Israel must remember we are still living in a world where every country can only rely on itself.
