The current drama in Ukraine seems to be taken right out of the TV show in which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy starred before he entered politics. The fact that it has been unfolding in slow motion doesn't mean there is no chance for miscalculation that would lead to an all-out war.
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The bitter lesson of appeasement in the 1930s has resulted in the current leaders being unable to make rational choices for fear that the other side is playing on a different field. The biggest challenge is to understand what the other party is actually aiming for. Sometimes it's about territory or natural resources, but in most cases, it's about old grievances – like former Syrian President Hafez Assad's desire to reclaim the Golan Heights from Israel because of his vivid memories of how he would bathe in the Sea of Galilee – or religious animosities that lead to battles on holy sites that make it impossible to resolve things in a secular way.
Now everyone wants to know what Russian President Vladimir Putin actually wants. Is Putin really concerned that Ukraine is about to enter NATO even though it has not even applied to do so and NATO has not even considered such a development? Is this his way to divert attention from domestic failures? Is this paranoia that could not be addressed through rational explanations? And why the urgency? And what's with all the target dates that have been floated right and left?
A clash between the world's superpowers will set the world back and cost dearly. Accepting Putin's demands could lead to a domino effect, alarming other nations who face big rivals, and rightly so. Giving in to his demands would mean the surrendering of the democratic world to authoritarianism.
Having said that, just because we don't want to go down the path of Neville Chamberlain and his black umbrella in 1938 doesn't mean we should not seek a diplomatic solution. In 1815, the European powers convened in Vienna and found a way to move on from the Napoleonic wars. If the West finds a way to formulate a decision that would put NATO membership off the table, while at the same time advancing the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, they could turn the current crisis into an opportunity that could bring about some calm.
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