Nadav Shragai

Nadav Shragai is an author and journalist.

Trump's plan offers a demographic promise

Israel's capital and its Jewish character will be greatly enhanced by the mini-partition.

Over the past 53 years, a countless number of peace plans have been produced by dozens of think tanks. The extremely dangerous Clinton Parameters, which were never adopted, gave those plans an almost-official seal of approval. Those parameters even divided Jerusalem's Old City and the Temple Mount. 

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And then there is President Donald Trump's plan, which offers a paradigm shift: Jerusalem will be kept by Israel almost entirely; its old city will remain under Israeli sovereignty; and the status quo on Temple Mount will remain in place, meaning Jews would continue to visit but won't be allowed to pray and Jordan will continue to have a role in administering the site.

Saudi Arabia, unlike what has previously been reported, is not going to get a role in managing the Holy Basin. 

The Deal of the Century does call for some sort of mini-partition: It redraws Jerusalem's municipal boundaries in a way that would place the Arab neighborhoods that are beyond the security barrier under Palestinian sovereignty, mainly in the areas of Shuafat and Kafr Aqab in the northern part of the city.

That area totals some 865 acres and about 140,000 residents who live in this impoverished, neglected and crime-ridden part of town that has been a hotbed for criminal activity and lack of governance. 

These areas were annexed by Israel after the 1967 Six-Day War war and account for a fraction of Jerusalem's municipal jurisdiction.

Despite being part of Jerusalem, de facto they lie outside its boundaries ever since the security barrier was erected some 16 years ago.

All those areas that lie beyond the barrier will comprise the newly formed entity called Al-Quds, which will be declared the capital of the future Palestinian state. Thus, the security barrier will become the de jure border between Israel and "Palestine." 

If the plan will ever get implemented, it will have a major impact on the demography in Jerusalem, a city that has seen its Jewish majority decline over the years.

If the plan becomes a reality, about a third of the residents in east Jerusalem will no longer be considered Jerusalemites and will be under the jurisdiction of the new Palestinian capital. This means that Jews will make up 68% of the city's population, while Arabs only 32%. Currently, Jews account for 59% and the Arabs 41%.

The Trump plan would also mean that Arab residents in the city, who have long refused to accept Israeli citizenship, will finally be citizens of a country.

Only 6% of the 210,000 Arab Jerusalemites on the Western side of the security barrier hold Israeli citizenship today. Once the plan is fully in place, all of the Arabs who remain in Israel will be able to get full-fledged Israeli citizenship or get Palestinian citizenship.

The plan places a special emphasis on the economic cooperation between the two countries and Israel will have to create a special tourist zone in northern Jerusalem that will be developed by the Palestinian state. 

The bottom line is that Israel gets recognition for its sovereignty over almost all of Jerusalem. Now it faces the test of exercising that sovereignty. To do so it should build in areas that have been under a de facto freeze, and invest heavily in Arab neighborhoods that have long suffered from unacceptable municipal neglect compared to Jewish areas. 

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