Despite the world being engrossed in the repercussions of the ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas, the growing likelihood of former US President Donald Trump returning to power, according to all indicators, is a significant concern for political circles outside the US. This unprecedented return of an American president to power in a non-consecutive second term is based on the results of opinion polls and strong support due to the performance of the current president, Joe Biden, who is the likely Democratic candidate for the presidential elections scheduled for the end of this year.
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In one of the recent opinion polls, a larger number of Americans expressed confidence in Trump's ability to manage the US economy compared to President Biden, despite months of robust growth in the economy. A poll conducted by the Financial Times and the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business in early February showed that 42% of Americans believe that Trump would be better at managing the economy, while only 31% chose President Biden, and 21% said they did not trust either of them.
These results were not the only ones to reveal the difficulty of Biden's position. There are other worrying indicators for Democrats, including a special counsel report on Biden's handling of classified documents, which described the president as a "well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory." This raises concerns among a wide range of voters about his age and intellectual and mental abilities, especially in light of Biden's public blunders and missteps in strategic matters of great importance to his country.
Politically, 35% of Americans believe that former President and likely presidential candidate Donald Trump would have dealt better with the crisis in Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas, compared to President Biden, who received 27% according to a poll conducted by ABC News. A poll by the same network also showed that 86% of Americans believe that President Joe Biden is too old to serve in his position for a second term.
It seems the US and the world are bracing for Trump's return to power, and everyone is following his speeches and media statements as potential political positions, not just election promises. Trump is no ordinary candidate. He is a former president who understands the strategic environment in which he exercises his mandate and the circumstances surrounding his political decisions.
Trump's statements about the relationship with the NATO alliance have caused widespread concern in the US and abroad, and the alliance members are taking them very seriously, especially since Trump's position was clear, stating that he would encourage Russia to do "whatever the hell" it wants to any member state of the alliance that does not pay enough into its budget. Trump said this when he was asked during his presidency about NATO's stance on countries that did not fulfill their financial obligations and whether they would be protected by the alliance in the event of a Russian attack. He stated that the alliance would not protect these countries, as a way to force everyone to pay their financial contributions.
"It's dumb, it's shameful, it's dangerous," President Biden hit back at Trump's comments. "Encouraging invasions of our closest allies by murderous regimes is appalling and unhinged," said White House spokesman Andrew Bates. The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, considered Trump's statements irresponsible and contrary to the principle of solidarity within the alliance. NATO Secretary–General Jens Stoltenberg warned against Trump's remarks, saying that they undermine the security of the alliance, and stressed in his statement that NATO will remain ready and able to defend all allies, adding that any attack on the alliance will trigger a united and strong response. German advisor Olaf Scholz also slammed Trump's statements, saying that reducing the guarantee of assistance to NATO countries is irresponsible and dangerous and only serves Russia's interests.
The allies' concerns were heightened by comments made by Keith Kellogg, a retired general and senior official on the former president's National Security Council. Kellogg mentioned that Trump, should he return to power, would seek changes in NATO that could result in some member countries losing their protection from outside attack. Kellogg added that if Trump wins, he would propose a summit in June 2025 to discuss the future of the alliance. After the summit, the alliance could evolve into a multi-tiered structure. Some members would enjoy greater protection because they adhere to the founding principles. Kellogg explained that Article 5 protection should not be considered if Article 3 of the Alliance's charter is not respected. This reflects Trump's determination to fundamentally change NATO's policies and principles. Such changes could lead to the disintegration of the Alliance, with the possibility of many members leaving if Trump stands by his agenda.
These reactions clearly reveal a shared concern about the likely Republican candidate becoming the next US President. This went so far that Katarina Barley, a vice-president of the European Parliament, raised the creation of a separate nuclear umbrella for the EU instead of the American umbrella as a topic for discussion at the level of European armies, pointing out that Europe's nuclear deterrent is currently in the hands of the NATO alliance and is no longer reliable in light of Trump's statements.
Evidently, Europe is not only worried about financial commitments but also about the possibility of the US leaving NATO during Trump's term, not so unlikely in theory, as the former president called for his country's withdrawal from the alliance in his election campaigns, a move supported by his voter base.
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The basic variable in this matter is the extent to which alliance members are committed to their defense spending, which remains a matter of doubt, as only 11 out of 31 member countries in the alliance have fulfilled their commitments, and in 2023, the US spent $743 billion, while the total defense spending of European countries and Canada was $356 billion. This huge gap feeds the concern and fears in NATO, as the situation has not changed much despite the war in Ukraine, with Germany – the second–largest economy among NATO countries – pledging this year to fulfill its commitments, which amount to 2% of its GDP for defense spending.
More dangerous than the financing dispute is that Trump doubts the commitment of the rest of the alliance members to defend the US in the event of an attack, saying recently, "And I hate to tell you this about NATO. If we ever needed the help, let's say we were attacked, I don't believe they'd be there. I don't believe. I know the people. I know them."
It is also problematic that what can be described as Trump-phobia is not limited to his attitude towards the NATO alliance, but now affects several areas of US foreign policy. The polarization around Trump is increasing and has taken on a broad international dimension. Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that Joe Biden as US President would be better for Russia than Trump, which Trump took as flattery. Overall, the international community is, once again, preoccupied with Trump's return and thus with his positions and policies, most of which are already known.
