João Lemos Esteves

João Lemos Esteves is a lecturer in the Law Faculty of the University of Lisbon as well as a political and security analyst.

Trump can afford to break his promise

The 45th president is the only White House occupant in the last four decades who has not started a war. If he chooses to stay in Syria, voters will forgive him.

US President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw US troops from Syria, leaving the Kurds to their own devices, is understandable from a domestic political point of view – but what does it mean for international security (and even America's national security)?

Trump has reshaped American foreign policy, adapting it to the most urgent threats of our times – contrary to what the establishment used to preach.

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Additionally, some very important steps were taken by the Trump administration regarding North Korea, the despicable regime in Iran, and of course toward the bolstering of the only democracy in the Middle East and our cherished friend and ally, Israel.

The Trump administration has been moving the world toward a more secure and prosperous world.

Let's be crystal clear: Trump will go down in history as one of the greatest and most consequential presidents ever, especially on foreign policy.

Having said this, the recent decision on the disengagement from Syria, allowing a very dangerous man called Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to enlarge Turkish influence there at expense of the Kurdish people, may be counterproductive.

Honestly put, the Syria problem is a tough one, both morally and politically. The world keeps on condemning the US for having second thoughts about being the world's policeman as if every citizen on this planet is entitled to have Washington's protection.

The youth from Oklahoma, the mothers from Alabama, the fathers from Missouri, the brothers and sisters from Montana and the grandfathers from Minnesota are tired to bear on their shoulders the responsibility of defending the world.

Trump is delivering on a campaign pledge and is bringing the troops back home. But the withdrawal of US troops is a mistake for three reasons.

First, the electorate is already satisfied with the reality of having a stronger economy and would thus be willing to support more sacrifice in protecting the world, and specifically the Kurds, who helped us defeat ISIS. After all, Trump is the only president in the last four decades who has not started a war.

This fact – and this fact alone – would suffice to guarantee that the American people would not blame Trump for not withdrawing troops. So, if US troops stayed in Syria, America will stand behind him.

Second, the terms of the withdrawal and the way it was put in motion may potentially generate some fears among the US allies regarding the partnerships and commitments undertaken by American authorities. I am not saying that the US has a duty to stay indefinitely – Americans have their own strategic interests and their people to take care of – but most of the time the strategic interests of America are aligned with others. Pragmatism and long-term vision are required to best handle and decide in situations like these.

In the Syria case, Trump could have defined a timetable to execute the withdrawal, with some safeguards to protect the Kurdish people and American interests in the region.

What some analysts are now calling a lose-lose situation would have been a "win-win situation." One thing is for sure: Trump must learn (and he is a practical man, with a remarkable ability to understand people) that he must not negotiate with Erdoğan without a stick. Always show a position of strength when dealing with such a dangerous man as Erdoğan.

Third, Trump could have used the threat of withdrawal as leverage to confront European leaders (and other countries) regarding their hypocrisy concerning NATO. They do not pay what they owe to the organization, but they demand that the American people pay the lion's share of NATO expenses.

Trump has been a very successful and effective leader of the free world. This time, the withdrawal from Syria could have been handled better (and – let's be sincere here – the political establishment of past administrations would have done it worse).

But Trump is known (the facts demonstrated it!) for always being the winner in the end. I do trust this time will be no different.

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