There is one thing that no one can disagree with: Donald Trump is the most pro-Israeli president to ever sit in the White House. A modern-day Santa Claus whose gifts for the State of Israel keep coming, and not just at Christmas.
The "deal of the century" is not just any old gift for Israel. Not just the plan itself – which is naturally open to interpretation, disputes and questions – but rather the unyielding support, stronger than ever before, of the United States in Israel and in its future as a Jewish state within secure borders. There is also at least one other happy tiding: After many long years, it has ushered the word "peace" back into the Israeli lexicon.
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But life in the Middle East is not glitzy ceremonies and declarations in the White House. It is a difficult, daily reality which will now be put to a new test. And once the dust settles, Israel and the Palestinians will have to make sure cooler heads prevail, knowing that every step could have far-reaching consequences.
The Palestinians will undoubtedly reject the plan. They have stated as much. And in any case, there is no chance that they will meet the conditions set by Trump. But if they loosen the reins and enable violence, not only will they push Israeli into unilateral moves that will determine the reality on the ground, they will also turn against themselves the few remaining sympathizers they have in world capitals.
PA President Mahmoud Abbas may see this as a fitting end to his role in Palestinian history, but it could lead (with quite high certainty) to the collapse of the Palestinian Authority and to the rise of Hamas in its place.
Israel must also avoid escalatory steps. From out of a political system on the eve on an election, voices were predictably raised calling to grab, right here and now, all of Trump's gifts. But it is unlikely that this is really in Israel's interests: not only because these steps can be taken properly by an elected government after the elections, but also because the American president sees in his vision agreements and negotiations between the sides.
During their visit Monday to the Judea and Samaria Brigade, Defense Minister Naftali Bennett and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi were presented with the military's operational assessment for the day after the unveiling of the Trump plan.
The IDF presented a broad spectrum of possibilities, ranging from complete apathy on the Palestinian street to a third Intifada. The professional experts made clear that unilateral Israeli measures would have a profound impact on the ground: The most immediate concern is that King Abdullah of Jordan will cancel or freeze the peace agreement in order to stay in power.
In the interim, we are likely to see an increase in violence from the Palestinian street. The PA has an interest in this happening, in order to present a modicum of popular opposition to the plan, but it is unlikely that they want things to get out of hand at this point. The IDF is prepared for this (so far, only a minor reinforcement has happened with an extra battalion deployed to the Jordan Valley), but it will likely try and avoid Palestinian casualties as much as possible so as not to escalate the situation.
Gaza is expected to remain quiet for now. Hamas continues to push for an arrangement with Israel, and this week finally received the supply of medications it had been promised, and so will prefer that the struggle takes place in the West Bank. That way, it cannot be blamed for torpedoing the plan and will instead benefit from a further weakening of Abbas' position, thus staying on track with its plan to take over the West Bank.
The coming days will likely see efforts to calm tempers on the ground. Actions, however, will define the reality and under the current climate, both sides face considerable temptation to take grand steps.
The Palestinian would do wise not to throw the baby out with the bathwater and destroy with their own hands any chance of realizing the dream of a Palestinian state. Israel would do wise to avoid steps that lead the other side to act this way.
