President Joe Biden's National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is likely going to arrive soon in Jerusalem to hold talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and with other senior Israel officials on the various policies the new government will pursue.
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As far as Netanyahu is concerned, this visit comes at ideal timing as it dovetails with its efforts to move forward on key diplomatic issues, including on Iran, the situation in the region, and the war in Ukraine. It will also allow him to coordinate moves on normalization with additional countries and to develop new avenues of cooperation that would bolster the Abraham Accords through the Negev Forum, which is set to convene in March. In light of the differences in approaches the US and Israel have on various issues, which could pose a challenge to their relations, this visit will serve as yet another opportunity to agree on "ground rules".
As for the Palestinian issue, it is safe to say that the White House has already set its expectations for what it could achieve with the new makeup of the cabinet and its members. Regardless, one of Netanyahu's goals is to make this issue have less of an impact on the diplomatic agenda and on the relations between the two countries. So what should Netanyahu's talking points be when he meets with Sullivan?
Israel-US relations: involvement without meddling
The special relations between the two nations and the bipartisan support Israel enjoys in the US serve as an overarching interest for Israel. However, Israel is a sovereign country that formulates its policies on its own accord and in view of the responsibility that history has given it as the state of the Jewish people and with the realization that the struggle continues over its existence, stature and security.
A strong Israel is a boon for the US in various aspects: security-wise, technology-wise, and economically. Israel will therefore continue to use its power to defend itself and will not allow its existence to be threatened. The US should at the very least have our back.
As for domestic issues, Netanyahu should make it clear that Israel is a vibrant and young democracy that sorts things out on hot-button issues through the democratic process. There is no room for meddling and foreign influence by any side.
The Iranian issue: The 2015 deal must be ditched
Apart from the relations with Israel, there is also a window of opportunity to restore US reputation in the region and to weaken the ever-closer ties between Russia and China, as well as to bring Saudi Arabia back into the fold so that it could help solve the world's energy problems. The key to all this: changing the posture toward Iran.
Iran's involvement in the Ukraine war only underscores the threat posed by it. Just imagine what it would feel it could do if it had nuclear capabilities. So far, the Biden administration has not been able to restrain the Islamic republic. The relations between Moscow and Tehran have reached new heights in 2022 and as this trend continues it will exacerbate the problems facing the US and the West.
Not only has Biden's policy not restrained Iran, it also allowed it to continue with its efforts to advance toward military nuclear capabilities and to continue with its subversive efforts in the region, as well as to continue using its proxies across the Middle East.
The White House has downgraded the Middle East in its set of priorities, and this policy has projected weakness. The result was soon evident: The US saw its influence in the region weaken. Washington must take the prospect of rejoining the 2015 nuclear deal off the timetable for good and actively lobby to have the snapback option – in which UN Security Council sanctions are re-imposed – activated by the remaining members, while also creating a credible military option.
Iran's activities in the Ukraine war and the failure to revive the 2015 deal provide an opportunity to change the policy toward Tehran. Europe might be more receptive to this than before.
It's important to take note that it would be wrong to assume that this new approach will drag the US to war. In fact, such a policy will reduce the risk of a war breaking out in the Middle East over Iran's continued efforts to implement its vision. If the US changes course it would show historic leadership that would restore its standing in the region and dramatically impact the battle over the new world order.
This policy will pave the way for rehabilitating the ties between the US and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, will stop their movement toward the Russian-Chinese orbit, and will rally them behind the cause of solving the world's energy crisis. It will also boost the domestic protests against the oppressive Islamic regime in Iran. Of course, this will also help build on the momentum created by the Abraham Accords.
Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, and the Palestinian issue
Preserving Israel's freedom of maneuver in the northern arena: In exchange for its help in Ukraine, Russia may seek to help Iran establish its presence in Syria. Israel is well aware of this dangerous option, and will not let Iran consolidate its presence in this region. Israel will continue to maintain its freedom to operate with resolve.
Promoting the ties with Saudi Arabia: Rehabilitating the relations between Washington and Riyadh will help move Israel-Saudi ties forward, but it won't guarantee closer ties. Israel wants to forge full-fledged peace with Saudi Arabia that will also bring about the end to the Arab-Israeli conflict. If this is still premature, it would still be right to inch closer with incremental positive steps that would create positive momentum and get the ball rolling.
Expanding the Abraham accords and creating regional cooperation to help resolve global problems: Expanding the regional cooperation of the Abraham Accords' signatories together with Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, and hopefully Saudi-Arabia could help alleviate not just the world's energy crisis but also help deal with the global food crisis, water shortages and more. For example, alternative wheat sources could be found in Africa, including in Sudan, while using technological know-how from Israel, UAE and Morocco. Also, Israel's experience could be harnessed as a pioneer in the alternative meat industry and to develop practical solutions to the water problems while using Israeli methods for reuse and desalination.
It would also be the right thing to do to finalize the deals with Sudan, to have Chad join the Abraham Accords' forums and to bolster ties with Morocco, as well as to engage additional Muslim countries that have yet to formalize ties with Israel.
Mediating between Russia and the US over Ukraine: When it comes to the battles between Russia and the West, Netanyahu has an advantage, in part because of his immense experience and his relations with the Russian, Ukrainian, and US leaders. It would be the right thing to do to see if conditions are ripe for effective mediation and if so, to offer his services. The US, Russia and Israel national security advisors' summit that was convened in Jerusalem in November 2019 could serve as the platform for such talks or get the process started.
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