The 10 days since the "heinous murder of the general, Hajj Qassem Soleimani," have been among the most tumultuous and confusing in the Iranian arena, as new developments have continuously poured in. Immediately after the assassination, social media sites were inundated with messages both condemning and cheering his untimely demise.
There was also quite a bit of dramatization surrounding the mourning: Soleimani's grave became a Mazar, or a Muslim shrine, with holy dirt for people to take home; grandiose funeral processions passed through various cities in Iraq and Iran; and dozens of people were trampled to death at his funeral in Kerman, an event reminiscent of former Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's funeral, no less.
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Everyone – inside and outside Iran – wondered how Iran would retaliate, and for a moment, at least according to the media, it appeared Soleimani's assassination managed to unite the Iranian people around their flag, and that the subsequent regional war would unify them even further, thus saving the ayatollah regime the same way the Iran-Iraq War did 40 years ago. An external enemy is a unifying factor.
I asked some Iranian friends in private if they were observing the three-day mourning period declared by Ayatollah Khamenei. They said, "We're in mourning 365 days a year, at least now let us have little joy."
Meanwhile, on anti-regime forums on Telegram – the encrypted messaging service – people said: "Three days of mourning, what fun!" and "Enjoy (your vacations) in the north!"
With the people killed at the funeral and the mistakenly downed Ukrainian airline – part of Iran's lukewarm bid for revenge against the US – Soleimani took more than 100 Iranians with him to the next world, along with dozens of Canadians and several Russians and Brits who were also on the plane – while not one American was hurt. At this stage, it seems a window of opportunity for toppling the regime has cracked open, with the ayatollahs under severe duress, the country's military at a critical juncture, and growing isolation in the international arena. It still remains to be seen, however, whether the Iranian people will seize the opportunity to overthrow the regime.
And then there was the failed PR and media campaign to cover up the reason for the plane crash, and the people – including those who until now have felt that although they lacked basic freedoms, at least there was a national agenda and guiding hand of sorts – now feel the situation has spiraled out of control. This has spurred the masses into the streets – even those who, based on their attire, are not "professional" protesters: We are seeing colorful clothes.
And now the ayatollahs are in dire straits domestically as well, facing a public that no longer believes their lies. Although Soleimani is considered a national hero and his death sparked anger toward the US, too much Iranian (and foreign) blood has now been spilled because of him, and the regime has no more heroes for the people to "believe in."
The streets are once again teeming with protesters, the slogans they are shouting aren't just against the regime (for example, "Khamenei, have some shame and set Iran free") but also against Soleimani. In recent video footage from one university in Iran, a majority of the students are seen refusing to step on American and Israeli flags, while also castigating those who do as "being disrespectful."
I'm still refraining from making any predictions. It's possible that this time the demonstrations at home will succeed because the regime is too busy licking its wounds from the past week and a half. The Iranian people are angrier than usual, and the world, too, will no longer remain silent. But the scenario I believe will unfold – and I hope I'm wrong – is that similar to previous protests, these, too, will be suppressed with an iron fist until the next wave rises.
