Dr. Limor Samimian-Darash

Dr. Limor Samimian-Darashย is a senior lecturer at the Federmann School of Public Policy and Government at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

There's no 3rd chance with Iran

The negotiations over a new nuclear deal evoke a disturbing sense of dรฉjร  vu as all the players are acting exactly as they did ahead of the 2015 pact.

 

The ultimatum Iran set for the United States regarding lifting the sanctions imposed on Tehran's economy and recommitting to the 2015 nuclear deal, elapsed.

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It was also revealed that the two were, in fact, engaged in clandestine negotiations for weeks with aim of resuming talks on the pact, and compounded by the fact that these talks involved several officials who were party to the negotiations during the Obama presidency, one is left with an uneasy sense of dรฉjร  vu.

Clandestine negotiations were also held in late 2012 and eventually they paved the way to the public talks. The difference is that back then, there was international consensus that negotiations were impossible while Iran insists on enriching uranium, the eventually deal gave Iran what it wanted most: international recognition in its "basic right" to enrich uranium as it sees fit.

Another disturbing resemblance is the discussion over a timetable. Instead of focusing on preventing Iran from ever becoming a nuclear state, the negotiations seem to be dealing with assessments as to "when" Iran will become one, rather than "if" that happens.

The talks that preceded the 2015 deal had a sense of urgency to reach an agreement over this exact issue โ€“ just as the current ones do. Those who hammered it out admitted that when it expires, "Iran will be within a few months away from a bomb." So in fact, talks with Iran are not over preventing the threat โ€“ but simply over delaying it.

While Iran violated the deal left and right, it has never actually bolted from it as it is in its best interest to appear to uphold it. As noted by the Middle East Media Research Institute: "Iran will never withdraw from the nuclear deal, as it grants it recognizes it as a nuclear state โ€“ a status approved and recognized by the UN Security Council."

So, essentially, the UN Security Council has recognized, de jure, Iran's right to enrich uranium, alongside the de facto acknowledgment of the ayatollah regime. Rolling this back will be very difficult.

Iran has not removed the 8.5 tons of enriched uranium from its soil as ordered by the International Atomic Energy Agency; it did not destroy the Arak heavy water reactor as it pledged to do in the 2015 deal; nor has it relinquished the military aspects of its nuclear program, as proven by the nuclear archive Israel exposed in 2018.

None of this, however, was enough for the Security Council to change its position.

The Israeli arena also continues along a similar line. The opposition failed to back Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's battle against the agreement at the time, continued to be stubborn, and rather than siding with the government in producing a united front vis-ร -vis Iran, the opposition again misses the opportunity to demonstrate responsibility.

With all the players are again walking the same path, it is unclear whether this is a case of intentionally turning a blind eye to reality or are chronically naรฏve. Either way, everyone should wake up because there will be no third chance when it comes to dealing with Iran.

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