The warning over Iranian plans to carry out attacks will remain in place for the foreseeable future and until the potential attackers are either arrested or leave Turkey.
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That has yet to happen. In recent days, a number of attacks have been thwarted, but the threat remains. The threat is not only of concern to the Israelis but to the Turks as well because it obligates them to invest a tremendous effort involving manpower, intelligence, and money, in the pursuit of terrorist cells in Istanbul.
This effort, which is only partially out in the open, is focused on the central entertainment sites in the city as well as hotels popular with Israeli tourists. The Turks, according to their interlocutors in Israel, have demonstrated they are serious about the effort. They understand full well that this is about more than just fragile ties with Israel but about their good name and a substantial source of income: incoming tourism at the start of the summer season.
In recent days, a significant effort has been made to locate and map Israelis who have chosen to ignore the warnings against travel to Turkey. It turns out that half of them fly to the country for a connecting flight and do not leave the airport. For these people, the travel warning is irrelevant because the airport is well protected. The other group is comprised of tourists, a large portion of whom leave for Turkey for various treatments, including hair transplants and other kinds of cosmetic surgeries. As these procedures are booked in advance, these Israelis are worried their treatment will be negatively affected if they cancel and have therefore decided to fly out anyway. Still, the warning has made an impact. These medical tourists may fly out to Istanbul, but they rush back to their hotel after their treatment and pass on the opportunity to take in the city sights.
In the effort to thwart an attack, a fascinating mind game is being played between Israel and Iran. This includes the decision to reveal the identity of the official plotting terrorist attacks against Israelis in Turkey. The head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' intelligence unit, Hossein Taib, has a long record of terrorist activity and intimidation both inside and outside of Iran. Those tracking him tell of a vicious commander with a tendency to go for broke, including in this instance.
Taib has been known to security forces in Israel and the West for years. One can assume he was also under close watch. But the decision to mark him publicly as the figure behind the current event also puts a bull's eye on his back.
It goes without saying that he will now look behind his shoulder whenever he leaves his home or sees a passing motorcycle in the street. In an instant, he has gone from nameless and faceless pursuer to the pursued and must make an effort to stay alive.
Defense Minister Benny Gantz's explicit threat that Israel "is preparing to respond with force in the face of any threat to Israeli citizens everywhere" is also aimed at making it personal and instilling fear in Taib and his colleagues in Tehran.
In Israel, officials made clear that as soon as the threat is neutralized, whether through the arrest of a terrorist cell or its flight, the warnings against travel to Turkey will be rescinded. It could take a day, and it could take many weeks. It all depends on the Iranians' determination, the level of Israeli-Turkish intelligence and cooperation, and quite a bit of luck.
No matter how this plays out, and hopefully it ends without an attack, Iran will continue to seek revenge.
The recent series of events attributed to Israel in Tehran, following the unrelenting Israeli Air Force strikes on weapons shipments to Syria and the ongoing treading of water on the nuclear issue, ensure that as far as Iran is concerned, this summer is going to be a scorcher.
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