The death this weekend of Omani leader Sultan Qaboos bin Said al Said came at the worst possible time in terms of the Middle East. Qaboos, who was 79 at the time of his death, was the longest-sitting ruler in the Arab world – he came into power through a coup he organized against his father in 1970. Since then, he has spent half a century as a moderating influence in the Middle East, with its plethora of wars, conflicts, clashes, and tensions.
Oman's geographical location at the opening of the Strait of Hormuz – near Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Iran across the Gulf – gives it great strategic importance, and many entities are looking at it greedily. The make-up of Oman's population, which is one-third foreigners and includes plenty of Shiite Omanis – add to the potential volatility of the sultanate.
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Throughout five decades, Qaboos was able to ride out the storms of the region thanks to a complex but balanced network of ties with rival Middle East entities and maintaining a tradition of moderate Islam in accordance with the Ibadith stream, which is dominant in Oman.
Under Qaboos, Oman was one of the first Arab states to establish ties with Israel, as early as the 1970s. Twenty years later, after the Oslo Accords were signed, an official Israeli diplomatic mission opened in the capital Muscat, which closed when the Second Intifada broke out. In October 2018, Qaboos – whose health was already failing – hosted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a state palace visit as a sign of the start of a new era in relations between the Gulf States and Israel. Qaboos took a great risk in hosting that visit because he it took place under the shadow of increasing tensions between the US and Iran.
Qaboos is seen as a Sunni Arab leader who managed to develop good relations with the ayatollah regime in Tehran. He hosted the secret negotiations between the Iranians and representatives of the Obama administration that paved the way for the 2015 nuclear deal. But, as one used to walking a fine line, Qaboos realized that in the Trump era, it would be best for him to bet on Israel while maintaining lines of communication with Iran.
Qaboos' death comes at a critical point for the Middle East, at a time when his diplomatic skills and personal and political ties could have helped served to prevent escalation, not to say war. What is more, Qaboos died childless, which could lead to a battle for succession, which might be avoided by the appointment of his cousin – Haitham bin Tariq al Said, who has served in key positions in the Omani Foreign Ministry and as Qaboos' personal envoy.
Oman, which was one of the most stable nations in the Middle East, could turn into yet another flash point if certain circumstances come to pass, with many players trying to intervene in the country's domestic matters. Its neighbor to the east, Yemen, is rent by a terrible civil war. Its neighbor to the north, Saudi Arabia, is undergoing historic upheaval under Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Sultan. In the past decade, Salafist elements have expanded their influence on the Sunnis in power. Iran is stirring up Shiite minorities across the Arabian Peninsula. And above all hangs the threat of a regional war with Iran.
Qaboos' death marks the death of the old Middle East. A capable successor could help take the Arabian Peninsula forward and speed up normalization with Israel. But if Oman isn't wise enough to uphold Qaboos' legacy, it could bring positive developments in the region to a halt, and increase conflict. The new sultan will has committed to uphold Qaboos' policies. We can only hope he succeeds.
