A financial crisis that is among possibly the top three worst since the middle of the 19nth century is how the World Bank recently described the current situation in Lebanon. A socio-economic meltdown which has the country teetering on failed state status.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
The parasitic state within a state model which Hezbollah and their masters in Teheran have developed over decades in Lebanon coupled with the coronavirus crisis and its many ramifications, along with the devastating Beirut Port explosion almost a year ago [one of the largest non-nuclear blasts in history] have brought Lebanon to its knees. The current reality on the ground to our immediate north has created a crossroads with implications that reach far beyond the empty gas tanks and pharmacy shelves of Beirut.
Make no mistake, there is no addressing the implications of what is going on in Lebanon without first and foremost dealing with the central and dangerous role that Iran and of course its proxy Hezbollah play in the country, the crisis, and the region.
Since the Islamist Iranian Revolution of 1979, a cornerstone of the Ayatollahs' regime has been the late Ayatollah Khomeini's calamitous vision of "exporting the revolution." Civil war-torn Lebanon of the 1980s was the foremost victim of this vision and its effects created the Lebanon we know today with the state within a state reality mentioned above. Lebanon is and has been the forward operating base of the Iranian revolution in the form of Shi'ite sectarian politics, civil society, and charities managed and operated by the many tentacles of Hezbollah and to a lesser extent Amal.
Lebanon also serves this purpose in military terms with Hezbollah's men and material representing a heavily armed and mobilized Iranian force which in recent years has garnered immense experience while serving their masters in Syria, Iraq, and perhaps beyond. Now with Lebanon's economy not functioning, its politicians' abject failure in forming any type of government, a worthless currency, and severe shortages of even the most basic goods, Iran and Hezbollah are faced with a choice. One option is to take total and official control of Lebanon and the apparatuses of the state, which would end the state within a state model, and with it, in any future aggression against Israel the convenient arrangement which separated Lebanon proper, its resources, and its vital infrastructure and assets, from Hezbollah and its actions.
This is not necessarily a new modus operandi that either Hezbollah or the Ayatollah's are eager to adopt for numerous reasons, the most obvious being that it enlarges Israel's target bank in Lebanon significantly, and allows the IDF to bring much greater force to bear in any future conflict along with increased legitimacy to do so. This would for all intents and purposes mean mass destruction throughout Lebanon instead of it being limited to Hezbollah strongholds such as the southern environs of Beirut as in the 2006 conflict. In addition, it risks open and robust pushback from major segments of Lebanese society, many on sectarian grounds, who are more and more opposed to Iranian intervention and Shi'ite domination of their country.
Another option for Iran and her allies is to come to the aid of the Shi'ite population in the country and ensure they remain socio-economically stable while attempting to convince the existing Lebanese state to accept enough aid whether in raw materials or otherwise to prevent the total collapse of the country; a middle way as it were. Without the acquiescence of the state to such an arrangement the Iranians would risk the alienation of the Shi'ite populace from the other ethnoreligious groups in Lebanon, who would continue to suffer in a failing state, which in turn would lead inevitably to a new\old civil war in Lebanon.
The Iranians might even attempt to convince certain so inclined European nations or even Russia or China to provide the Lebanese state assistance, while they themselves buffer their Shi'ite proxies and those who depend on them. Yet another possibility is that the Iranians do nothing directly or beyond their existing support for Hezbollah, and gamble that the international community will rescue Lebanon from the abyss.
If Iran chooses to take complete and official control of Lebanon via Hezbollah it has implications for Israel's entire geostrategic posture, as Lebanon would effectively become an Iranian colony, and the few obstacles remaining which prevented certain parts of the country from becoming Iranian assets would melt away. Though Israeli military and civilian leaders have repeatedly [even before the current acute crisis in Lebanon] made clear that any future conflict with Hezbollah would see a much wider scale and devastating Israeli military campaign in Lebanon than in the 2006 conflict, complete Iranian domination would require numerous and varied pre-emptive and pro-active military steps by Israel before an actual war would break out.
Clearly, any Iranian "annexation" of Lebanon would be inexorably linked to Iran's greater regional ambitions and ideological goals. As the often-cited verse from the Book of Jeremiah makes clear: "And the LORD said to me: From the north shall disaster break loose upon all the inhabitants of the land!" (Jeremiah 1:14). These eternal words tragically held true repeatedly throughout Israel's history, and are still valid as a warning today to the dangers of Iran and her allies' plans and ambitions.
Throughout the low points of our history, Israel was never felled by ordinary hostile neighbors or forces, but by mighty empires, whether from the East or the West. And regardless of their geographic origin those empires would execute their main invasion of Israel from the North, what are today the states of Lebanon and Syria.
The Assyrians, the Babylonians, and the Romans [three empires that would conquer, destroy, occupy, and colonize our land and exile masses of our people] would all follow the same basic formula for attacking and invading – conquer and incorporate the lands to Israel's north into their empires; recruit, coerce, and deploy allies amongst the populations of those lands many of whom were already in conflict, sometimes for centuries with Israel, and who were full of enmity and resentment toward it.
That would be followed by invasion and entry into the Galilee and Golan regions followed by penetration into the remainder of Israel using the most advanced weaponry at the disposal of these empires and their allies. Iran, whether consciously or not (the former in my humble opinion), has been pursuing the same stratagem. Lebanon's complete collapse, especially if followed by the seizure and complete and outright control of the country by Iran, makes the threat even more palpable and direct. As it aspires to become a Neo-Persian empire, infused with radical Shi'ite Islam and a messianic Mahdiism, Iran has consolidated like-minded forces all along Israel's immediate borders as well as further afield, and armed them with much of the best and most advanced weaponry Iran possess' in order to create a literal and figurative ring of fire around the State of Israel.
Hezbollah along with Iranian military and Revolutionary Guards forces already in Lebanon and Syria, joined by Shi'ite militia contingents from as far away as Afghanistan along with elements of the Syrian military, is the forward vanguard of Iran's aspiring empire. A collapsed Lebanon controlled directly from Teheran would serve to further entrench the northern end of this Iranian ring of fire.
Hamas and Islamic Jihad as well as "offshoots" of Fatah in Gaza and Judea and Samaria represent another element of Iran's expeditionary forces to Israel's south and in its heartland. Shi'ite armed groups in Iraq and Yemen, as well as whole sections of the Iraqi military controlled by loyalists to Iran complete the ring of fire to the east and far south of Israel.
A disturbing flirtation, somewhat in its infancy, between the Jordanian monarchy and the regime of the Ayatollahs, is also a cause for concern and a possible additional layer of threat from the east. In just the past few days, the increased direct and indirect Iranian attacks on US forces and assets in Iraq and Syria illustrate Iran's determination and focus on tightening its grip further and deeper all along the Fertile Crescent which runs parallel to the northern and western arcs of their ring of fire. Recent Iranian maritime activities in the Mediterranean and their possible deeper strategic cooperation with Turkey in Syria and elsewhere seek to form the western arc of the ring.
This ring of fire is part and parcel of Iran's overall strategy to weaken and then destroy Israel. A potential Iranian nuclear weapon is the centerpiece of that strategy, and the various forces arrayed by Iran to our north are the immediate ground troops to be used at an aspired to a future date to attack and capture Israeli territory. Furthermore, contrary to popular hyperbole amongst many abroad and unfortunately some at home, the Iranian empire, if allowed to rise, would have no qualms whatsoever in using a nuclear weapon/s in one capacity or another.
The development of electromagnetic pulse weaponry or tactical nuclear weapons to be deployed in a limited fashion and mainly against the Israeli military, security, or critical infrastructure targets – avoiding an urban\population center target profile – is the most obvious example of weapons of mass destruction attack Iran would believe, mistakenly, to be below the threshold of instant genocide, and therefore of a nuclear response. Such calculations, by extension, would have the Iranians believe that such an attack could be more easily "explained away" to the world. [The actual formulation of doctrines on limited\small scale nuclear weapons use, have been alluded to openly by nuclear weapons states such as the US, Russia, and China in recent years].
A Lebanon fully controlled or just simply more beholden to Iran is a scenario for which Israel will need to adjust in its continued response to Iran's nefarious plans, and specifically as part of an already extant direct and aggressive posture by Israel for a number of years now towards hostile forces in Syria and [according to foreign reports] Iraq, and against targets in Iran itself.
For the State of Israel, there can be no real division between different parts of Iran's multi-pronged empire-building plans, not its advanced weapons programs, or its increased physical presence in the lands around us, or its WMD production efforts. They all must be treated for what they are, part of a highly organized, coordinated, and well-executed plan to "wipe Israel of the map."
Israel must continue to confront, obstruct, and ultimately defeat Iran and its minions. This is vital regardless of negotiations between Iran and world powers on reviving the disastrous JCPOA, or disagreements between Israel and those same world powers, especially the US on Iran policy in general, lest we repeat the recurring folly of our past and allow an empire to knock at our gates. Lebanon is in the headlines but the specter of an ever-growing genocidal Neo-Persian empire looms large over the crisis in the Land of Cedars as well as over the future of the entire region and the world.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
