Prof. Eyal Zisser

Eyal Zisser is a lecturer in the Middle East History Department at Tel Aviv University.

The second Syrian refugee crisis

Syrian refugees who fled to neighboring Arab and Muslim countries have begun wearing out their welcome, yet fear returning to the cruel bosom of the Assad regime. The world, much like before, is largely apathetic.

The war in Syria is nearing its end, and all the Damascus regime must do is seize control of the Idlib province in the country's north, the last rebel-held stronghold. The attack on Idlib, with Russian and Iranian support, is, therefore, a matter of time, and in light of Ankara's recent rapprochement with Moscow, we can assume that Turkey won't try stopping it. Because a great many Syrians who oppose the Assad regime have found refuge in Idlib in recent years, we can assume that the final stage of the war will be even bloodier than its predecessors and will almost certainly force hundreds of thousands, if not millions of Syrians, to seek refuge with their neighbor to the north – Turkey.

This time, however, the Syrian refugees could discover the gates are closed to them, as Turkey has already declared it will not allow them entry. Right now, Ankara is essentially busy trying to get rid of the millions of Syrians already in Turkey.

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The Turks are simply fed up with the Syrian refugees, approximately 2 million or so in number, who they received with open arms just a few years ago. Turkish politicians – in step with a growing public sentiment that Syrian refugees cause trouble, spread crime and violence, and also take jobs – are now openly calling for their expulsion and for rapprochement with the Assad regime. In some places in Turkey, anger has devolved into violence against refugees, mainly targeting job seekers.

Turkey is not alone. Egypt, too, is seeing a groundswell of antipathy toward the Syrian refugees, around a quarter-million or more in number, which is also targeting the more affluent among them who have opened businesses in Cairo that compete with local businesses. In Lebanon, the rising tide of criticism against the Syrian refugees, who have greatly burdened the country's economy, has sparked tensions that have spilled into violence. And finally, in Jordan, which throughout the years has taken pains to concentrate the million and a half refugees from Syria in camps in the country's north, there are increasing calls to force them back to Syria.

Hence the current trend is that the absorbing countries are changing their attitudes toward their Syrian immigrants. The refugees were initially welcomed warmly by the host populations, which empathized with the uprising in Syria. The revolution was perceived in these countries as a fight by Sunnis against the Alawite sect, headed by Syrian President Bashar Assad, an ally of Shiite Iran. But local interests and the existential necessities of needing to make a living, together with the feeling that the refugees are, after all, foreigners, ultimately trumped good intentions.  The refugees are now learning that hospitability has an expiration date; and that when temporary refugees become permanent residents, attitudes tend to shift accordingly.

The Syrian refugees, however, have no interest whatsoever in returning to the cruel bosom of a regime from which they fled or were forced to flee. The Syrian regime, for its part, views these refugees as potential enemies because they hail from those areas that spawned and waged the revolt, and it also fears they will become an insurmountable economic burden. To be sure, Syria's rapid population growth (which reached some 25 million people in 2011) was one of the main factors behind the revolution. Now, after nearly one-third of the country's residents have become refugees, the population, in the words of Assad himself, has become "more homogenous."

The world has remained largely apathetic to this crisis. These refugees were already abandoned once before when the Assad regime slaughtered and kicked them out of their country, and now they are being forsaken yet again.

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