European Union countries are deliberating on how they will treat an Israeli annexation of territory in the West Bank. The way they see it, even a small annexation could lead to a bigger one, and either case, in their eyes, is like treyf for a person who keeps kosher. Even the smallest amount of pork is verboten.
The elephant in the room is the sanctions applied to Russia after it annexed the Crimean Peninsula. All EU nations have kept them in place, and when leaders speak to each other, the question arises of how they could justify not applying similar sanctions against Israel in the case of an annexation. The sanctions have had a not inconsiderable effect on Russia's economy, but they are a punishment for those who declare them, too, so some countries are suggesting not punishing Israel for annexation as a way of lifting the ones in place for Russia. The countries that want the sanctions to remain in place for Russia, and they are a large majority, oppose that idea vigorously. However, because most of them would prefer not to declare sanctions against Israel, barring some extreme situation, recognition of a Palestinian state could work as a fitting "punishment."
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
Leaders who talk to Prime Minister Netanyahu in an attempt to deter him from annexation and convince him to launch negotiations with the Palestinians, not necessarily as per the Trump plan, are told unequivocally that the "deal of the century" is the only possible basis for future talks.
Of the 27 EU nations, nine have recognized the Palestinian state since the PLO declared it in 1988. Some of them did so when they were members of the Soviet bloc, and today are considered some of the more pro-Israel players in the EU, even though they have not revoked that recognition.
Assuming that the EU is not able to reach a consensus about recognizing the Palestinian state, it is seen as likely that even if Israel annexes some of the West Bank, a few of the countries will consider doing so independently, as has happened thus far. If indeed that comes to pass, it will mean that the Palestinians' claims in the International Criminal Court in the Hague that the territory of the West Bank is not disputed, but rather a sovereign state, and that its annexation is similar to the annexation of Crimea, will be strengthened.
European recognition of a Palestinian state according to the 1967 borders will bolster the argument that the ICC judges must accept the Palestinian claim that the establishment of settlements in the West Bank and future claims against the annexation, if it takes place, and rule that they comprise war crimes for which Israelis directly involved should be indicted. Given this, Israeli officials are holding unofficial talks with European officials, in which the Israelis are making it clear that they would prefer sanctions to Europe recognizing the Palestinian state. Simple as that.
In January it seemed as if the Right had gotten what it wanted, and that the United States of America was willing to offer a successful solution to the conflict. It seems as if the Netanyahu government was like a kid in a candy store. In the midst of the coronavirus crisis, it turned out that the candy store owner was announcing terms and conditions, and was a little startled at the response from the Arab world, and ready to go on a diet. Netanyahu doesn't want to come off as someone who doesn't understand what he was originally offered, and he is willing to make due with a tiny annexation to create the impression that he has managed to get what he wanted from the leader of the free world, who is limping toward an election. Even a small-scale annexation could put Europe in a position where it has to prove that it isn't treating the annexation of Crimea and the West Bank any differently, thereby leading us to the ICC to face difficult accusations. All for something so small and unnecessary.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
