There is something strange in the sight of the fervent preparations for a battle that won't take place for another four months or so. But, as we know, the current Israeli political landscape has its own rules and oddities. Nothing is predictable, and even without a green light, the political armies are already preparing for battle day in November.
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If we keep up the military metaphor, we might be able to determine that right now, the ones who are best prepared are the "Anyone but Bibi" camp, or as they are known in the media, the "center-left bloc." That isn't something to be taken for granted, because until a few weeks ago, when the coalition was breaking apart, it looked like the Right was the stronger, better organized bloc. Its forces appeared well-arrayed and stable, United Torah Judaism and Shas were solid in their corners, the Religious Zionist party was rising in the polls, and the Likud was in its natural place as bloc leader.
The anti-Netanyahu center-left, on the other hand, looked more battered and at odds than ever. It was Gantz vs. Lapid, who was scheming for Michaeli's seats, and Michaeli was in turn looking to Meretz. Even the ideology that had been sacrificed on the altar of "change" ceased to be a factor, and the government ministers weren't performing at their best.
Suddenly, everything changed. In the Haredi camp, MK Moshe Gafni has recently become very active and started obfuscating his messages ahead of ushering Benny Gantz into the prime minister's seat if Netanyahu fails to secure the magic 61. While Gafni has always been seen, and characterizes himself, as having dovish tendencies, political circles are divided about how real his warming relations with Gantz are. What is certain is that realistically speaking, Gafni has only two to three of the 15-16 seats that UTJ and Shas will bring in together. This might sound like few, but in an exciting election they could be critical. Gafni's behavior and remarks are causing the ground to shake in the Haredi wing of the Netanyahu bloc.
Another problem comes from the Religious Zionist party. MKs Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich are in the midst of a strange fight. What first looked like a political honeymoon is turning into a nightmare. Of course, the fight is over places on the Knesset list. Ben-Gvir says Smotrich isn't returning his phone calls, Smotrich says if Ben-Gvir wants to talk he can call, and each wants everything for himself.
It would be hard to overstate these two hawks' irresponsibility. If either of them fails to make it past the minimum electoral threshold, it will almost automatically hand power over to the Left. This week, Ben-Gvir held a press conference in which he took aim at Smotrich. Smotrich was interviewed and failed to clarify what the problem was. They, along with the rest of the party leaders in their bloc, think that a responsible adult needs to step in to prevent an electoral disaster.
Meanwhile, the left-wing camp is seeing mergers. Gantz and Sa'ar joined forces this week and announced it to the public without taking questions from reporters. The merger is rooted in their shared interest in posing a threat to Yair Lapid, to take away his legitimacy as leader of the bloc as well as bringing in votes from the moderate Right who do not like Netanyahu. Make no mistake – Sa'ar by no means thinks that Gantz is the best candidate for prime minister. Only a few days before the announcement, he denied that any such idea was even on the table, or that they were in talks.
At this stage, Lapid is projecting confidence. He doesn't feel threatened and continues about his business like someone who is running from the Prime Minister's Office and is seen as bloc leader. Polls aren't predicting any tectonic shift as a result of the merger between charisma bombs Gantz and Sa'ar, who looked paler than usual while talking to the press. But in a country in which a person with only five or six Knesset seats served as prime minister, a double-digit number could be enough to cut Lapid off and lead the way to a new government under Gantz.
The only unknown in the left-wing bloc is the situation of Meretz and Labor. To the horror of Meretz members, Horowitz dropping out of the race for party leader could benefit Yair Golan. Meretz is almost begging former leader Zehava Gal-on to step in and save them, fearing that Golan – a commander of the occupation whom many in Meretz see as a nationalist – will be the final nail in the party's coffin. There, too, they have realized that comparing leftists to Black slaves or Jews to Nazis won't necessarily help them in their war to make it past the minimum threshold.
Despite the situation, Merav Michaeli, who is expected to be reelected Labor leader, is rejecting any merger of the far-left wing of a center-right bloc. But expectations are that the more time passes, this too will be resolved. The apocalyptic scenario rests on the assumption that Gantz and Lapid will try to siphon off as many votes as possible from Labor and Meretz, leaving them both below the minimum threshold.
As of now, Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked – who, if you've forgotten, is also head of Yamina – is out of the picture entirely. Yamina, which until a moment ago was the party of the prime minister, is now polling at less than 2%.
This week, Shaked had to pull an ace out of her sleeve, and luckily, she found on. After Amichai Chikli resigned from the Knesset, he was replaced by MK Yomtob Kalfon. It appears that Shaked is having a hard time keeping Yamina member in the party and has difficulty attracting new candidates to the list. This says a lot about how the political world assesses her chances.
So in light of all this, Shaked rushed to have her picture taken with Kalfon and praise him to the skies on social media. Remember, only about two months ago Shaked, Naftali Bennett, and Matan Kahane ousted Kalfon from the Knesset in a sudden attempt to preserve the coalition. Now Shaked, who used to be the princess of the Right and was seen as a future leader, is clinging to Kalfon for dear life. It's not clear which of them is in bigger trouble.
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