Oded Granot

Oded Granot is a senior Middle East and Arab World commentator.

The next challenge is just around the corner

Hezbollah's threats to target the Karish offshore rig prompted Israel and Lebanon to accelerate indirect negotiations over the disputed maritime border.

 

The transitional government led by Prime Minister Yair Lapid passed the test of a Gaza conflict with flying colors, but it cannot afford to rest on its laurels.

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The next – and arguably more arduous – challenge is just around the corner when the Karish offshore rig goes online in a few weeks and explores natural gas off the coasts of Israel and Lebanon.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's threats to target the rig unless Lebanon's "full rights" in the field of gas production are guaranteed, led to the acceleration of the US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon over their disputed maritime border, with the aim of concluding them before drilling began.

US Special Envoy and Coordinator of International Energy Affairs Amos Hochstein visited Lebanon and Israel last week, but while all sides are cautiously optimistic, neither is confident negotiations will conclude in the narrow timeframe left.

Adding pressure is the fact that Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shiite terrorist group that wields immense political power in Lebanon, has demanded to see the draft agreement before it is signed.

Greece, which is co-owner of the rig, tried to find out whether Nasrallah was serious about targeting Karish and was told it would be best if it just removed it as Hezbollah "cannot guarantee" what fate would befall it.

Hochstein has informed the Lebanese that Israel "has no intention whatsoever to surrender to Nasrallah's extortion," but this does not mean his threats are being taken lightly.

The Diplomatic-Security Cabinet discussed the issue last week and it is clear to all that Hezbollah is in no way similar to Islamic Jihad: not in the massive number of rockets it possesses – over 100,000, according to IRGC officers who commented on the issue last week; not in the arsenal's range and accuracy, and not on issues of command and control.

Ostensibly, there are at least two reasons why Nasrallah should refrain from embarking on a military adventure vis-à-vis Israel.

Hezbollah's status is at an all-time low in Lebanon, where the terrorist group is facing growing criticism over the destruction of the country and the terrible suffering of millions of civilians who are struggling to survive.

Moreover, it should look to the IDF's achievements during Operation Breaking Dawn, where the extensive counterterrorism campaign against the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, demonstrated an impressive improvement is precision strikes and the interception rate of the Iron Dome defense system.

The issue with Hezbollah is that no one can be sure as to whether Nasrallah has learned his lesson in 2006 and will be wary of provoking war with Israel.

He may believe that fire at Karish would come down to a limited conflict with Israel that would allow him to claim some sort of victory, as the PIJ has. But that would be a miscalculation; and it is also the Lapid government's next test.

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