The meeting of foreign ministers of the US, Egypt, the UAE, Morocco, and Bahrain in Israel, along with the summit between Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi and Emirati Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed and the open security and intelligence ties Israel maintains with a variety of Arab states are a reflection of a revolutionary strategic shift.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
In the broad historical context, Israel is institutionalizing its status as an important Middle East power. In the immediate, focused, context, these events are shaping an Israeli-Arab coalition after American policy lost its way in the region and the US caved to Iran. The challenge for Israel and its Arab allies is now to integrate the loss of whatever shred of faith in the Biden administration's strategic considerations remained with the recognition that at the end of the day, nothing can replace American support. They need to maneuver between controlling the damage of Biden's pacification in the short term and cooperating with the US going into the stage when Washington will have to recognize the inevitable failure of that pacification.
Every move is blatantly similar to Eisenhower's foolishness of 1956. Then, too, the American president failed to understand a radical anti-American Middle Eastern figure (Gamal Nasser) and allowed him to exert hegemony over the entire region and betrayed his close allies (Britain and France). When, as expected, his policy wound up strengthening the Soviet Union and crushing the West's stature in the region (through the fall of the Iraqi regime and the threat to pro-American elements in Jordan and Lebanon), not even the Eisenhower Doctrine could cause things to reverse direction. Only when the US came to its senses under Lyndon Johnson and the determined battle Nixon and Kissinger led saved the region from the damage, some 20 years later.
The difference this time is the power and determination of the regional allies. Israel is strong enough to lead the fight, despite the American capitulation to Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps; the Arab allies are determined enough to let the Arab public know about their close security ties with Israel and recognize it as a leading regional power. All these allies are facing the same paradox: they are essentially fighting American policy amid a heightened understanding of their dependence on the US, on an admission from Washington that its regional policy has failed.
The hope that the American policy will be recognized as an impasse rests on two processes that are already beginning: the level of Iranian aggression and the willingness of members of the Arab-Israeli coalition to escalate their fight. Iran's contempt for the US can be seen in its attack on American forces in response to an Israeli strike and its demand that the US remove the IRGC from its list of terrorist entities. Israel knows that if it doesn't use force to prevent Iran from growing stronger, it will find itself encircled by ballistic missiles that will exact an unbearable cost in a war, while Iran will stay inviolable because of its nuclear threat. The Arabs are afraid that their ruling regimes will collapse and the Americans will do nothing other than murmur words of solidarity. Both they and Israel are aware of the need to and possibility of a move against the trend of restraint from Washington.
Israel has made it clear through announcements and military actions that it is not obligated to the nascent Iran nuclear deal. The Gulf states have sent out signals that the US leaving them to Iran's mercy is linked to their unwillingness to increase their oil output to mitigate prices. Arab states meet in Israel and announce that they are cooperating with it on military and intelligence matters. Their sister nations are evaluating the reactions in the Arab public, hoping to join the alliance. Needs and abilities dovetail: the Arabs need Israel's unique capabilities in the fields of intelligence, air defense, and ballistic missile defense, and Israel needs funding to increase its power and bases near Iran from which to operate.
The war in Ukraine has upended everything on the global scene and could lead to ties between the mullah regime, China, and Russia that will have a profound influence on events in the region. But it appears as if the Arab taboo on open ties between Israel and its neighbors has finally been broken. This connection completes the process of turning Israel into a full-scale regional power, not only in military, economic, scientific, and technological terms, but also in terms of its ability to maneuver and leverage these relations. The American policy on Iran is irresponsible, unsuccessful, and dangerous, but at least has pushed the Arabs into Israel's arms.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
