Israel's COOVID vaccination campaign is showing the country's positive aspects in a prestigious light worldwide. The ability to respond quickly to emergency situations, the healthcare providers' unique infrastructure that is showing both logistics and planning capabilities as well as operational flexibility; the medical teams that have jumped on the mission and are devoting themselves to it day and night; and an overwhelming majority of the public who are listening to science and not following fake news and scare scenarios – all of these have led to extraordinary success and the vaccination of half of the country's residents in under two months.
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The data from the research we at Clalit Health Service's research institute conducted in conjunction with Harvard University, which were published a few days ago in the New England Journal of Medicine, indicate that it is very likely that we in Israel are seeing the beginning of the end of the COVID pandemic as an event that interferes with our lives and something that determines our regular routines. I say this even though the study did not show that those who have received the vaccine are invulnerable – it demonstrated that that vaccine is not "armor" and does not provide 100% protection against a serious disease.
Given that the vaccine provides partial but very significant protection (12 times as much) against a serious illness and even death in every age group and for people with pre-existing conditions, the vaccination campaign is reducing the pandemic's potential to cause harm. This gradual process will conclude when enough members of at-risk groups have been vaccinated, and the number of serious cases, as well as the prospect of another outbreak, are low enough to ensure that the healthcare system is not overwhelmed.
But that having been said, it is important to stress that we're not there yet. It would be a painful mistake to lose control at this point and allow a fourth wave of infection. We need to remember that the vaccination campaign has already reduced the potential for serious illness, but not enough. We need to accept the fact that given the British variant, which is more contagious and more violent than the varieties we knew earlier, only a combination of oversight to ensure that the virus does not spread and continuing the vaccination campaign in the next few weeks can lead us to a new status quo in which we live with the virus – and "gradual" is the name of the game.
It's easy to see how complicated the current situation is right now. If at the peak of the third outbreak we found it difficult to cope with 1,000 new serious cases per week, now – even with most of the adult population already vaccinated – we are still seeing 500 new serious cases per week, half of whom are people under 60. From here, we can easily extrapolate that if there were twice as many new cases, we'd be seeing 1,000 serious new cases per week no, as well, and the situation in our hospitals would still be difficult despite the achievements of the vaccination campaign. Vaccinating a few hundred thousand more adults will have a significant effect on the percentage of the population that is vaccinated, something that can happen and is happening.
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Alongside efforts to complete the vaccination of people in high-risk groups and protect children, who cannot yet be vaccinated, I understand that there is a need to conduct open dialogue about how the new social contract will look, as we gradually transition. There will have to be an emphasis on personal responsibility. We will need to make sure that safe frameworks are available to everybody but decide when it is time to instate "risky" frameworks that will be open those who choose to participate, based on when decision-makers deem the danger of an overwhelmed healthcare system is low enough to do so. The debate about when that will be and what the proper balance is has already been abandoned, but it's important to understand that we are still in the danger zone, and we need to behave with moderation in the next few weeks to prevent a disaster in the last few kilometers before the goal.
In the next few weeks, especially, it is important to adhere to the Health Ministry guidelines. It's important to keep wearing masks in public, maintain social distancing, and ventilate closed spaces. It's also important to keep promoting more and more "green passport" plans that are low-risk, if not risk-free for people who have been vaccinated or recovered from COVID.
Despite what happened during Purim, I want to believe and hope that we can make it through the next few weeks wisely, thus preventing a painful, preventable fourth outbreak while also allowing us to reopen and rehabilitate the economy.
