Sondos Saleh and Iman Khatib Yassin, slots 14 and 15 on the Joint Arab List, will be happy to hear of the irresponsible apathy and the pointless protest coming from a minority of right-wing voters who are planning on staying home. Their decision to skip the short walk to the polling station may actually contribute to a historic gain for the Joint Arab List.
A defeat for the Right, even though it is a majority, is usually caused by three factors, all together or independently: First, voting for parties that do not pass the electoral threshold, such as voting for Otzma Yehudit; second, low voter turnout compared to the Left; and finally, many right-wing voters tempted to vote for momentary centrist parties or for right-wingers who have placed themselves as a minority in left-wing parties, just like the representatives of the Telem party in the Blue and White faction.
Between April and September, it was believed that voter turnout would fall due to the repeat elections. There were even calls to boycott the vote in protest. Moti Sklar, for example, who held senior positions in the Israeli media, claimed that "it's time to raise our voices and declare a voter mutiny." As far as I can recall, such calls were not heard on the Left, who believe in the motto, "Anything but Bibi".
The minor spike of about 1.5% in voter turnout between April and September can be misleading. What contributed to it mostly were Arab voters, whose turnout rose from 50% to 60% in September. They were joined by Shas and United Torah Judaism voters, who also saw small spikes in their strongholds, and we're talking about ultra-Orthodox voters who usually are not affected by fluctuations in the general public.
The nationalist camp should be concerned about what is going on in the Likud and religious-Zionist strongholds. Although there was no turnout change in these areas between April and September, it was still low at only 65%, compared to 72% in Blue and White strongholds.
Is it inevitable? Recent history shows it is not. Let us go back and recall a battle that seemed lost, on the eve of the 2015 elections against the Zionist Union. One of the reasons the Likud won was the dramatic change in turnout. In all types of polling stations, the turnout rose on the 2013 figures, but in the Likud strongholds, there was a significant spike of almost 6%, from about 66% to around 72%. The gap between the Likud and Zionist Union areas dropped to 2%, which proves that in Likud strongholds one can narrow the gap that exists today between both types of strongholds. A similar narrowing over the next few days and a hike of 5% in Likud strongholds (more is even better, of course), could get two more seats for the Likud.
National-religious voters are in an even worse state. This is a group that consistently votes at the highest rates in the country, higher than the ultra-Orthodox. The classic national religious areas have always seen a turnout of over 80%. However, between April and September, these strongholds saw the largest relative decrease, of nearly 3%. The settlements of Elkana and Beit El were amongst the top 10 communities with the largest drops in turnout between the two election cycles. Even though it's a small decrease, sometimes that small drop is exactly what's missing in order to secure those critical seats for the bloc.
Knesset elections are not like choosing a life partner or friends. For most voters, elections are a lesser evil. Right-wingers should think about the future consequences of their vote. And the only absolute, relevant consequence is the formation of a right-wing government or a left-wing government. Therefore, voting for allegedly the most right-wing party, Jewish Power, which will not pass the threshold, is a vote for the Left. Period. Staying at home due to apathy or some kind of protest against the other candidate you do not like will give more weight to the Left, and therefore constitute a vote for the Left.
Right-wingers must not think that if they do not come to the polling stations they are not voting. They are indeed voting. For the Left. Right-wingers, get over your apathy, and get out and vote.
