The Joint Arab List is limping toward the 2021 early election battered and bruised, the trust between the faction's four parties shattered, and a deep rift in Arab society due to internal strife. The current fallout pertains to Ra'am Chairman Mansour Abbas' talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud.
Members of the Islamic Movement in Israel, which Ra'am represents in the Knesset, have claimed for some time now that their representative, Mansour, deserves to be faction leader and constantly repeat that the Hadash party, which voted in favor of the law that prohibits conversion therapy for LGBT individuals, is responsible for the fracture in the Joint List. Hadash and Balad, meanwhile, oppose any form of cooperation with Netanyahu and warn against any deal that will help him remain in power.
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Amid this backdrop of discord and mutual accusations, Hadash has launched a campaign cautioning against the List's collapse. Fewer seats in the Knesset and the scenario in which the faction splinters off into smaller parties, some of which won't pass the electoral threshold, are presented as the biggest gift possible for the right and for Netanyahu in particular.
The campaign calls to rehabilitate unity within the faction and to preserve its considerable electoral and political achievements. Members of the Islamic Movement, however, accuse the other faction members of trying to "steal" these achievements by taking collective credit for MK Mansour's accomplishments over the past several months, such as recognition of Negev villages and freezing the Kaminitz bill (meant to crack down on illegal construction in Arab communities).
Despite the sullied atmosphere and tensions, however, and as much as the Joint List appears fragile and teetering, the scenario in which the faction splits into pieces isn't realistic. From the outset, we must remember, the Joint List was formed specifically to prevent the waste and loss of votes, despite the ideological differences and disparate worldviews between its members. As long as the Arab parties are weak alone; as long as most of them have no realistic chance of passing the electoral threshold on their own; their members will opt to maintain the joint framework. Indeed, the Joint List also loses mandates by running together, but losing three-four seats out of the 15 it currently has is far more palatable than splintering and entering Knesset with just three or four representatives each if they run separately.
The phenomenon of Mansour Abbas, however, is having a new and unexpected effect, which threatens – or at least is starting to threaten – the Joint List, perhaps even more than splitting apart. In the last election, the right's criticism of the Arab parties worked like a boomerang, increasing their voter turnout. Today, there seems to be less excitement among Arab voters.
Right-wing parties are putting out feelers with the Arab public, with the aim of forming a concrete, serious idea about devising a civil agenda. To some degree, the talks between Mansour and the Likud were a significant symbolic starting point. It's hard to gauge what influence they will have on the upcoming election, but it's possible that together, Likud, Shas and even Yamina could siphon a mandate or two from the Joint List, and in the long term maybe even much more.
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