Israel is facing a threat that could become existential: the Iranian threat. At this point, it can still be managed through the following: sanctions that would weaken the ayatollahs, checking Iranian aggression in Syria by means of a limited preemptive war, and shoring up Israeli-US determination that would establish deterrence and avert a larger flare-up.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
The Biden administration wants a deal with Iran that would devoid this equation of key elements. Iran will reject any deal that would truly curtail its hegemonic status in the region and undermine its ballistic and nuclear capabilities over time. Reviving The deal from 2015 or introducing a slightly tweaked version would threaten Israel and the Arab states in the Gulf and beyond. There is a zero-sum game between Iran and its Israeli and Arab rivals. Thus, the only deal that could be struck between the US and Iran will be a deal that would hurt the vital interests of Israel and the pro-American Arab nations.
The nature of the Iranian threat is obvious if you look at the overall regional dynamics. Tehran wants to become the hegemon in the Middle East by imposing itself as a radical, strong Muslim superpower, at the expense of the weaker, even dysfunctional, Arab states. This hegemony does not require full domination and definitely not an occupation. Iran doesn't want to be responsible for failed Arab states and their societal ills. Rather, it wants to tap the vast resources of the region, including economic and strategic geographical assets. Iran has already proved that it without Israeli and US intervention, it would be able to advance these goals through a sophisticated and effective network of proxies.
Hegemony is the ultimate goal, and if it manages to gain access to the regional resources Iran would become much more than a regional power. It would be able to threaten the feeble Europeans and would pose an existential threat to Israel by potentially letting its radical proxies do its bidding in Jordan, Syria and Egypt.
Iran has already proved such potential by establishing a path for its proxies stretching all the way to the Mediterranean Sea, from Iraq through Syrian and Lebanon, taking advantage of the unraveling political regimes in those countries. Likewise, its proxies in Yemen have managed to strike Saudi Arabia and threaten the freedom of navigation in Bab-el-Mandeb and for a while even put Red Sea shipping at risk with the help of Sudan. Its nuclear project is designed to make the regime immune to intervention on the part of the US and Israel.
The 2015 deal essentially aimed to stall Iran's nuclear enrichment for a decade without actually addressing the issue of advanced centrifuges and without imposing effective inspection on weapons development, all the while ignoring its ballistic missile program. Thus Iran was given a green light to keep a low-profile nuclear program and maintain its breakout capacity. In the overall strategic analysis, the Obama administration essentially accepted Iran's efforts to reach regional dominance in exchange for a temporary and partial curtailment of its nuclear program. Now President Joe Biden wants the US to once again embrace this template, albeit with minor modifications. Iran has picked up on his keen desire to reach a deal and his low expectations. They know that he doesn't see a problem with having a strong Iran, and does not believe it has to be weakened.
Veteran diplomat Robert Malley, who has a long record of pursuing unfriendly policies toward Israel and siding with Israel's radical enemies (including during the failed 2000 Camp David summit between Israel and the Palestinians), is now going to be Biden's Iran envoy. This tells you everything you need to know about the president's posture. Had Biden wanted to gain the trust of Israel and its Arab allies, he would have thought twice before appointing Malley.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
