The Russian envoy to nuclear talks in Vienna Mikhail Ulyanov said last week that Iran got much more than it expected. In early December, Richard Nephew, the US special deputy for Iran, who previously worked under former US President Barack Obama, resigned from his role over the current administration's conciliatory approach to Tehran. The "objective" European Union official sent to mediate the talks, Enrique Mora, traveled to Iran six months ago to attend the inauguration ceremony of President Ebrahim Raisi.
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The necessary conclusion Israel must draw from all this can only be that no deal is better than a bad deal. Those willing to compromise on a deal believe such an accord will stall Iran's nuclear program and that diplomatic processes will moderate Iranian aggression. They are mistaken. A policy that merely "stalls" the Iranian nuclear program is in direct contrast to Israel's and the world's commitment to keeping Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Moreover, the economic aspects of the original 2015 deal only served to increase Iran's aggression.
The latest mistaken belief presented by supporters of this bad deal is that following the US withdrawal from the accord, Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons increased. On the contrary, based on International Atomic Energy Agency data, Iran did not revert to enriching uranium at high levels in 2018, when then-US President Donald Trump abandoned the deal, but rather in 2021, when Biden entered the White House.
Moreover, there is evidence Iran violated the accord as soon as it was signed – with its military nuclear program, for example. In addition, the European states remained parties to the accord despite Washington's unilateral withdrawal. Imagine what would have happened had the accord been accompanied by massive global sanctions. In reality, though, they activated indirect mechanisms for the transfer of funds in violation of the sanctions.
While a bad deal allows Iran to continue to enrich uranium and bolster its nuclear framework for "research purposes," in the absence of a deal, all this would be illegal and would allow for action to be taken against it. With the US and all the other world powers signatories to the accord, will Israel dare – let alone be able – to attack Iran? What will the response be to Israel's blow to the "world peace" these countries have created in their minds. And when the economic sanctions are removed and the economic and energy ties between Europe and Iran grow, will Europe be able to – or even interested in – acting against Iran should that become necessary? See, their handling of the Russian gas issue as one such example.
Former US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman said the withdrawal from the agreement wasn't a problem because the accord wasn't the solution. A return to the accord at this point in time isn't the solution but the problem. A bad deal will bolster Iran's economy, which will lead to an all-out escalation in the region, and ultimately its transformation into a nuclear state. In such a reality, Israel and the world have a moral obligation is to prefer no deal to a bad deal.
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