In the days left before the election, two reports have emerged that appear problematic, if not worse, for the prime minister's staff. They both come from Biarritz, France, where the G-7 met last weekend. One has to do with the possibility that on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly next month, US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani might hold a meeting. The second has to do with Trump's remarks about possibly unveiling his "deal of the century" before the Sept. 17 election, despite what he has been saying recently.
Even those who believe that Trump is coordinating with Netanyahu will find it hard to think that both these weighty matters were hammered out beforehand. Netanyahu believes that the right way to handle the Iranians is to make life as hard as possible for them through sanctions, freezing funds, and boycotts, until they are willing to accept US demands on Iran's nuclear program as well as on issues that were not discussed during the negotiations that led up to the 2015 nuclear deal. Public talks, which would give legitimacy to the Iranian regime, and negotiations without Iran complying with the US's most basic demands, is seen as a harsh blow to the Trump administration's policy thus far, which was influenced to no small degree by Netanyahu.
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Based on what Trump said about this in Biarritz, we can learn that to explain his own willingness to hold a summit like that, he feels a need to describe how much Rouhani and his people's conduct has improved.
"Iran isn't the same country it was two and a half years ago when I came into office. … It was the number one nation of terror." In other words, the president thinks that it was his policy that managed to change Iran's behavior and that it is no longer the No. 1 terrorist state in the world – which means he can talk with Tehran. What's more, he declared that he "wants a really strong Iran," does not want to replace the current Iranian regime, and wants other countries to extend Iran a letter of credit! So far, Netanyahu is considered head of the secret Middle East coalition against Iran, and the one who is putting that coalition at America's disposal. So talk about a US-Iran summit – not to mention an actual summit taking place – could be a destabilizing factor.
I can assume that Trump's statement about postponing the rollout of his Middle East peace plan allowed Netanyahu to breathe easier. If the plan is unveiled, Netanyahu will have to respond to it. If he accepts it, even with reservations, as a basis for future negotiations with the Palestinians, the Right will be furious with him. If he criticizes the plan, he will lose Trump. He could forgo the entire plan and, if there is no other option, address it only if and when he resumes the role of prime minister after the election and forms a government. Announcing the plan could give Netanyahu's rival from Blue and White rivals an advantage – they won't have any reason not to embrace it.
But Trump's remarks, changeable as they are, also present an opportunity. Instead of making herculean efforts to prevent the New York summit, the government could offer Trump talking points about Iran's ballistic missile program and Iran's involvement in global terrorism, particularly the support and funding it gives to terrorist groups in our region, as well as its presence in Syria. The more detailed these points are, the greater the chance that they will be part of the negotiations between the only superpower in the world and the Iranian regime, which could serve Israel's defense and security interests.
And when it comes to the "deal" of the century, assuming the Likud would prefer a unity government over being dependent on far-right players, the plan – if it exists – could serve as a platform on which to build a broad coalition after the election.
