Many observers did not realize the significance of the statement made by Jake Sullivan, the US national security advisor, before the recent G20 summit hosted by India. Commenting on the absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping, he said this was an attempt to spoil Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's big moment. According to available information, some analysts argued that he was referring to India's willingness to announce the African Union's seat at the G20 summit table, with all that this entails for New Delhi in its competition with China for leadership in the Global South and for the African continent, increasingly striving to make its voice heard around the world.
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Meanwhile, Sullivan was likely referring to the announcement of the Economic Corridor Project linking India and Europe via Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel. That project appears to be a strong competitor to China's Belt and Road Initiative, which involves some 60 countries and aims to deliver Chinese goods to Western Europe via Central Asia and Russia. India's transformation into a great power is no longer just a theoretical assumption or an expected scenario discussed in think tanks; it has become a concrete reality.
In the recent past, India has demonstrated its determination to assert its rightful place in post-Ukraine war order. This assertion has been evident through its continuous successes in space as well as its projects that secure the country an important position as a hub for manufacturing, exports, industry, and technology.
In my opinion, the G20 summit was India's most important impact to date. Indian diplomacy succeeded in influencing Western leaders who are critical of Russia, with whom India maintains friendly and neutral relations. With the summit's final declaration, India sent a clear signal by avoiding direct condemnation of Russia for its war on Ukraine, even though China, a key ally of Russia within the group, was not present.
Despite expectations that the summit might end without a final declaration due to disagreements over Russia's stance in China's absence, many saw it as an opportunity for the West to exert strong pressure to issue a strong condemnation of Moscow.
More importantly, Indian diplomacy not only succeeded in building consensus among the members of the G20 group, but the final declaration also condemned the "use of force" in Ukraine to achieve territorial gains. However, there was no explicit mention of Russia's attack on that country after it was denounced in the declaration issued at the conclusion of the 2022 G20 summit in Bali, then attended by China.
The G20 summit declaration in India was praised by China, which called it a "positive signal" to the world and reiterated that the declaration reflected its views and showed that the G20 was working together to address global challenges and promote development. Russia also welcomed the declaration, calling it a "milestone."
It is undeniable that one of the areas where India and China compete is leading emerging economies. India scored a major point during the summit by announcing the African Union's membership in the G20. In addition, India has launched a project that observers see as a strong competitor to China's Belt and Road Initiative.
India's Economic Corridor Project enjoys the full support of the EU and the US, whose leaders have declared that the project "will change the rules of the game." By this, they mean the rules of the geostrategic conflict between the West and China, as well as competition between India and China. The US' strong support for India can perhaps be understood in light of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's recognition that changes in the world pose a major challenge to the existing order since the end of the Cold War. He pointed out that the Russian war in Ukraine poses the greatest threat to the international system, as the partnership between Moscow and Beijing makes the world safer for "authoritarian regimes," Blinken said.
It should be noted that US concerns about China have increased to the point that US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendell has called on his country's authorities to step up preparations for a possible military confrontation with China. According to him, war could break out "if US military capabilities are insufficient to repel Chinese aggression against Taiwan."
India, a member of many institutional blocs that include both Russia and China, such as BRICS and G20, is also involved in informal alliances such as Quad, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the US, Japan, Australia, and India. It plays a highly influential role in Western conflict and competition management with China and its ally Russia. Western support for India is somewhat viewed from the perspective that India is a significant strategic competitor to China and shares democratic values, a free economy, and more with the West.
In turn, India sees the need to act very carefully between the parties and maintain its important cooperation with Russia. It manages its historic border disputes with China with extreme precision to avoid military clashes and violent confrontations in which both sides could lose a lot. It is also aware that the current transition in the global system is a favorable opportunity to assert its position and secure a leadership role among the great powers.
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