The fact that Arab politicians have voiced support for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with slogans such as 'Abu Yair [the son of Yair] We are With You' says everything you need to know about the election campaign, as it underscores a big leap forward in the relations between Likud and Arab voters.
Over the weekend I saw several such signs in the largest Arab population center in Israel. If this campaign to court Arab voters works for Likud, the governing party could see a spike of 2 or 3 seats – which could be the difference between another Netanyahu term and his defeat.
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This campaign has managed to dispel several myths, but there are still two unknowns. The two unknowns are the turnout, which every pollster agrees could be the deciding factor because it could lead to various parties not crossing the electoral threshold, particularly one of the small left-wing parties.
The second unknown is the number of Israelis who are not physically present in Israel. This number is usually unimportant but this year a disproportionate number of Israelis chose to return to Israel or stay here because of the pandemic.
The two myths that have been dispelled is the presupposition that there are two political blocs. This was true in past elections, but it turns out that the Left doesn't really have a bloc that will be able to form a government (this was evident even after the March 2020 election).
That is why Blue and White leader Benny Gantz ultimately decided to form a unity government with Netanyahu. Now, as the votes are cast yet again, the only glue holding together the Left is the personal animosity toward Netanyahu, but it is fragmented as ever.
New Hope leader Gideon Sa'ar has based his campaign on the assumption that if his party and Yamina band together they would get the largest share of the vote on the Right, and at one point during the campaign, their combined tally of projected seats was indeed greater than Likud's. Sa'ar's people were even convinced that they would be able to force Likud to dump Netanyahu and make it join a broad coalition on their terms, but over the past two months their strength has waned and the tailwind that the media has given Bennett during the height of the pandemic has gradually disappeared as Israel emerged from the crisis. Now Likud holds a sizeable lead in the polls over the two satellite parties.
The Likud under Netanyahu's leadership has waged war on two fronts during the past 12 months. One front is the pandemic, and the other is the political climate. The pandemic has been used by anarchists, with the support of some in the political and legal community, to stir chaos. This struggle has led to the erosion in the Likud's clout and led to the flourishing of various plans to topple the Right, banking on the continued spread of the virus into the spring and the summer. But this is where the massive success of the virus became a game-changer: The public, despite being brainwashed by the media, has experienced first hand what the meaning of coming back to life is. This has given Likud a boost, with voters faced with only one other option: continued political gridlock.
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