We know from experience that the terrorists behind Sunday's shooting attack at Tapuach Junction will soon be captured. Actually, we can assume that the security forces already know quite a bit about them. The information about the car from which the shooting was carried out – a silver Hyundai – were sent out on social media shortly after the incident. The investigation will certainly soon lead to who was riding in it during the attack.
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The prevailing assumption is that this was a cell, not a lone terrorist. It's difficult for a lone attacker to seek out targets while driving, not to mention shooting accurately. In all previous similar drive-by incidents, there were at least two people in the car, sometimes more, who were involved in the attack.
The number of people involves makes it easier for the Shin Bet security agency to investigate the attack. It's harder to find a single terrorist who never shared his plans with anyone than a cells whose members need to coordinate. The use of a gun also helps with the investigation; unlike stabbings or car rammings, a gun must be purchased, and the purchase process involves more people, increasing the chances of finding the perpetrators.
Now the push is to capture the terrorists behind the attack as quickly as possible, because the moment they crossed the rubicon and put their plan into action, they became much more dangerous. As far as they are concerned, they no longer have anything to lose. The attack will send them to prison, or the world to come, depend on how the special forces who find them leave them. The longer it takes, the greater the chances are that they'll attempt another terrorist attack.
These tactical concerns are mixed with a much greater cause for worry, a strategic one. In the past 10 days, things have been far from good in the Palestinian arena. It started with the events at Damascus Gate in Jerusalem, progressed to rocket fire on southern Israel from the Gaza Strip, and then to terrorist attacks in Samaria. On Sunday morning, security forces took down an elderly woman who tried to stab soldiers in Gush Etzion, and later that afternoon we saw the shooting in Samaria.
Many officials have the sense that we are facing the start of a wave of terrorism. Ramadan is a sensitive time every year, but it looks like this year the days of the fast are more volatile than usual as a result of the ceaseless campaign about east Jerusalem, the postponement of the Palestinian legislative elections, the economic and social ramifications of "post-COVID," an mainly the holiday and the religious fervor it brings, which parties with vested interests – primarily Hamas – are constantly agitating.
This challenge will increase in the next few weeks.
Next week, the Palestinians will celebrate Laylat al Qadr (the Night of Decree) just as Israel prepares to observe Jerusalem Day, and these dates will be followed by an especially tense combination of Eid al-Fitr, Nakba Day, and Shavuot. The IDF is ready, and has already deployed a few extra battalions (some of which relieved Border Police companies that were reassigned to help the Jerusalem District Police), but it looks like more will be needed.
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One consistent and worrying phenomenon that follows terrorist attacks of this kind is copycats. So the main effort right now – in addition to the physical attempts to demonstrate presence on the ground – will be to gather intelligence. Efforts will also go into finding the members of the cell who carried out the actual attack, but the main emphasis will be on preventing future attacks.
In 2020, security forces managed to keep things on a low simmer in Judea and Samaria. To a large extent, this had to do with COVID, which kept friction between Jews and Palestinians to a minimum, but the bottom line is that the year saw the number of victims in terrorist attacks plummet to three dead and 46 wounded, compared to 10 dead and 66 wounded in 2019 and 16 killed and 83 wounded in 2018.
Now the security establishment is worried this trend might reverse, so there is a need to muffle the territory to tamp out violence. This will require a combination of sticks and carrots, as well as finding and handling the entities that incite violence – especially Hamas, which is playing a double game. As it tries to keep the Gaza Strip quiet, the organization is exerting itself to light up the West Bank, including providing funding and dispatching terror cells.
So as part of the investigation into the attack, the Shin Bet will try to learn as much as they can about the cell, as quickly as they can – was it operating on a local, neighborhood level, without belonging to any organization? Or did it have other partners? This is critical, not only to know whether or not the attack could have been thwarted, but also to understand whether someone is behind them. If it turns out that the shooting was funding and carried out by one of the terrorist groups, Israel will need to hold those behind it responsible, with everything that means.
