Israel's intention to extend sovereignty to parts of Judea and Samaria has been floating in the air for months now. But the Persian Gulf states, it seems, have only awakened in the past few weeks to the irritating sound. The Saudis, and later the United Arab Emirates, only recently joined the voicing of concern over unilateral steps that "could harm the chance for a permanent peace between Israel and the Palestinians."
There are many reasons for the Gulf nations waking up late to the possibility of annexation. We'll mention three of them: First – the global pandemic, which caused deaths in their countries, as well, and forced the Arab regimes to deal extensively with its consequences, including the fear of financial collapse due to the sharp drop in oil prices.
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Second – the belief that annexation, as part of Trump's Deal of the Century, is an egg that has yet to hatch. The US government has yet to set its conditions, the map on which experts from both the US and Israel are working on has yet to be completed, and until recently there was doubt that a government would be formed in Israel to execute all these.
And third – the understanding that even if they get over the difficulties and complete the preparations and the train finally leaves the station - even then there will only be a public statement that will cause a media uproar but won't change much on the ground.
What prompted the Gulf states to abandon their "we-don't-care stance" and publish an objection to the planned step was the date set by the prime minister, July 1, and the steps the Palestinian Authority took - for the first time acting and not just talking - towards halting security coordination with Israel and abandoning the Oslo Accords.
It should be mentioned that the relative quiet in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (except for sporadic flare-ups in Gaza) on the one hand, and the increase in the Iranian threat and the danger it poses to the security of Gulf states on the other, are what created a common ground for secret talks between Israel and the moderate states, which only deepened throughout the years.
Furthermore, it seems the effective steps that Israel took to block the Iranian entrenchment in the Middle East encouraged the Gulf states to externalize their covert cooperation with Israel. The first steps of normalization appeared with visits of Israeli statesmen to the Gulf, an Israeli pavilion in the Expo fair in Dubai (which was canceled due to the pandemic), and more.
So, it is reasonable that what made the Gulf states publish this condemnation of the planned annexation is mainly the fear that the wheels may be sent spinning backward and the lull in the conflict with the Palestinians could be replaced with bloodshed that may bring about the collapse of the PA, the entering of the IDF to the territories and a breakdown in relations between Israel and Jordan and Egypt, which would make it difficult for the Gulf states to remain quiet and stand aside.
On the other hand, we should remember that the alliance of interests between Israel and these countries in the face of the Iranian threat is strong, and if the tension between Israel and the Palestinians increases as a result of annexation moves, the relationship will continue below the surface. Only the externalization and normalization will cease.
